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本文基于我国2004~2013年31个省份增值税税收税源背离额和背离率的测度研究,结果显示:东部和西部多为增值税净转入地区,中部地区多为增值税净转出地区。发展趋势上,增值税的净转入地区和净转出地区的失衡程度逐年加深,且净转出地区失衡增长速度快于净转入地区失衡增长速度。PVAR模型对增值税背离与地区经济发展关系的实证分析表明,增值税税收税源的背离,对第三产业的发展和城乡居民人均可支配收入的增长有不利的影响,并提出了缓解增值税横向分配失衡政策建议。
Based on the measurement of departure from tax rate and departure rate of VAT tax sources in 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2013, the results show that most of the eastern and western regions are net value added tax (VAT) transfers, while the central region is mostly net VAT exporters. In terms of development trend, the degree of imbalance between net transfer of value-added tax areas and net transfer-out areas has been deepening year by year, and the imbalances in net transfer-out areas have been growing faster than the net imbalances in net transfer to areas. The empirical analysis of the PVAR model’s relationship with the departure of value-added tax from the regional economic development shows that the departure of the source of VAT tax revenue adversely affects the development of the tertiary industry and the growth of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents, Dispatch unbalanced policy recommendations.