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Under the mediation and support of the United States and some Middle Eastern countries, a new coalition of Syrian opposition groups was formed on November 11 in the Qatari capital of Doha. The newly united opposition, which is named the “Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces,” includes most Syrian opposition groups, but has yet to show whether it can bring long-awaited peace to the war-torn country.
Observers said that as the strength of the Syrian opposition increases with the establishment of the new bloc, an opportunity will arise for the opposition to negotiate with the Syrian authorities. But whether the newly formed bloc will seize the initiative is questionable.
“The reshuffle of Syrian opposition groups aims to strengthen the power of the opposition as a whole. But it is still hard to say whether the move is geared toward reaching military goals or achieving to negotiate with the Syrian Government,” said An Huihou, a senior visiting researcher with the China Institute of International Studies.
Reshuffle
The new Syrian opposition coalition won the recognition of the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council and some Western countries soon after its establishment.
The Arab League recognized the opposition bloc as “the representative of aspirations of Syrian people.” Washington also swiftly declared its backing.
“The reshuffle was led by the United States and some countries in the region. Washington wasn’t satisfied with the performance of the former coalition, which was loose and ineffective in confronting the Syrian authorities,” An said.
He said the total opposition forces have increased somewhat, but whether they would take a unified position is uncertain.
Xue Qingguo, a professor of Arab studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that although the new coalition included most opposition groups, some military factions inside Syria are unwilling to join it. The military power of the new opposition bloc is not guaranteed.
“Besides the goal of overthrowing the Bashar al-Assad regime, there are many divergences among the opposition groups—from religious faiths to interests and from ideologies to crisis-resolving approaches,”Xue said to Beijing Review.
“It is very doubtful that the new bloc could form a unified fighting capacity. An immediate ability to turn the situation around is almost impossible,” Xue added.
In fact, Syrian opposition groups inside and outside the country have not seen eye to eye with each other on strategies to end the unrest that flared up 20 months ago. The exiled opposition continues to call for foreign intervention, while the Syria-based opposition rejects such an approach and accuses the exiled groups of engaging in a foreign conspiracy. Luai Hussain, head of the opposition Building Syria State Party, said the agreement reached by the new bloc will further complicate the situation on the ground.
According to the agreement, once the new coalition wins international recognition, it will form an interim government in exile and call for a national conference if the current Syrian administration is ousted. The opposition bloc also agreed to establish a new supreme military council to take overall command of the rebel groups.
During an interview with China’s Xinhua News Agency, Hussain said his party will reject anything that comes out of the overseasbased opposition. “The formation of any interim government abroad would be conducive to increasing division in Syrian society, and thus would widen the platform of a civil war,” he said.
“To some extent, the establishment of the new coalition at least added weight for the opposition to conduct political negotiations with the Syrian Government. It should be an opportunity,” An told Beijing Review.
Though the coalition declared it would not have dialogue with the Assad regime, An claims that such posturing may sometimes differ from its true stance.
“From the current balance of military power, it is impossible for the opposition bloc to defeat government troops without military interference from the West or regional countries. In addition, most members of the international community hope for a peaceful settlement to the Syrian crisis,” said An.
An said the integration of the opposition groups is of particular significance because it could enable the opposition to play a bigger role in negotiating with the Syrian Government to promote ceasefire and end violence. Only this outcome lies within the interests of Syrian people and the expectations of the international community.
Settlement
At a regular press briefing in response to a question regarding the new coalition, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei reiterated China’s stance that the Syrian crisis should be settled through a political transition process led by Syrian people.
“China has consistently held that foreign countries should not interfere with Syria’s internal affairs,” said An. He added that China has no private gains from the issue. China’s stance is totally based on the interests of the Syrian people.
During a recent trip to Beijing by UNArab League joint special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, China put forward a new and more detailed and practical proposal to facilitate the political settlement of the Syrian conflict. It calls for implementing a region-by-region or phase-by-phase ceasefire and establishing a transitional governing body of broad repre- sentation. The spillover effects brought by the ongoing Syrian crisis have severely impacted its neighboring countries. Latest statistics from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees show that there are more than 407,000 Syrian refugees in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey after the crisis broke out in March last year.
“If the crisis continues, it might bring disaster to the region and even influence the West. They should recognize the significance of resolving the crisis through political negotiations,” said An.
An said that at present the largest obstacle to the political settlement of the crisis is the precondition set by the West and some regional countries that Assad must step down.
Xue hopes that U.S. President Barack Obama could give up the precondition in his second term; or else the situation may become more difficult.
Obama is faced with contradictions over the Syrian crisis. On the one hand, he is under pressure from some domestic political forces to interfere in Syrian affairs; on the other hand, he wants to change the misguided policies of his predecessor George W. Bush, seeking to with- draw troops from the Middle East, Xue said.
“Obama should admit that the Syrian authorities continue to have majority domestic support by far,” said Xue.
An said it is not impossible that Obama would choose another kind of approach apart from military interference in resolving the crisis. After all, the spreading violence will be of no benefit to Washington.
He said that as the United States’ strategic attention turns eastward, grappling too much with the Syrian issue does not match its foreign policy goals.
On November 14, in his first press conference at the White House since his reelection, Obama said categorically that Washington would not arm the Syrian opposition for the moment. He also ruled out an immediate recognition of the new Syrian opposition bloc as“some sort of government in exile,” though his administration had declared its backing for the coalition just days before.
Observers said that as the strength of the Syrian opposition increases with the establishment of the new bloc, an opportunity will arise for the opposition to negotiate with the Syrian authorities. But whether the newly formed bloc will seize the initiative is questionable.
“The reshuffle of Syrian opposition groups aims to strengthen the power of the opposition as a whole. But it is still hard to say whether the move is geared toward reaching military goals or achieving to negotiate with the Syrian Government,” said An Huihou, a senior visiting researcher with the China Institute of International Studies.
Reshuffle
The new Syrian opposition coalition won the recognition of the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council and some Western countries soon after its establishment.
The Arab League recognized the opposition bloc as “the representative of aspirations of Syrian people.” Washington also swiftly declared its backing.
“The reshuffle was led by the United States and some countries in the region. Washington wasn’t satisfied with the performance of the former coalition, which was loose and ineffective in confronting the Syrian authorities,” An said.
He said the total opposition forces have increased somewhat, but whether they would take a unified position is uncertain.
Xue Qingguo, a professor of Arab studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that although the new coalition included most opposition groups, some military factions inside Syria are unwilling to join it. The military power of the new opposition bloc is not guaranteed.
“Besides the goal of overthrowing the Bashar al-Assad regime, there are many divergences among the opposition groups—from religious faiths to interests and from ideologies to crisis-resolving approaches,”Xue said to Beijing Review.
“It is very doubtful that the new bloc could form a unified fighting capacity. An immediate ability to turn the situation around is almost impossible,” Xue added.
In fact, Syrian opposition groups inside and outside the country have not seen eye to eye with each other on strategies to end the unrest that flared up 20 months ago. The exiled opposition continues to call for foreign intervention, while the Syria-based opposition rejects such an approach and accuses the exiled groups of engaging in a foreign conspiracy. Luai Hussain, head of the opposition Building Syria State Party, said the agreement reached by the new bloc will further complicate the situation on the ground.
According to the agreement, once the new coalition wins international recognition, it will form an interim government in exile and call for a national conference if the current Syrian administration is ousted. The opposition bloc also agreed to establish a new supreme military council to take overall command of the rebel groups.
During an interview with China’s Xinhua News Agency, Hussain said his party will reject anything that comes out of the overseasbased opposition. “The formation of any interim government abroad would be conducive to increasing division in Syrian society, and thus would widen the platform of a civil war,” he said.
“To some extent, the establishment of the new coalition at least added weight for the opposition to conduct political negotiations with the Syrian Government. It should be an opportunity,” An told Beijing Review.
Though the coalition declared it would not have dialogue with the Assad regime, An claims that such posturing may sometimes differ from its true stance.
“From the current balance of military power, it is impossible for the opposition bloc to defeat government troops without military interference from the West or regional countries. In addition, most members of the international community hope for a peaceful settlement to the Syrian crisis,” said An.
An said the integration of the opposition groups is of particular significance because it could enable the opposition to play a bigger role in negotiating with the Syrian Government to promote ceasefire and end violence. Only this outcome lies within the interests of Syrian people and the expectations of the international community.
Settlement
At a regular press briefing in response to a question regarding the new coalition, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei reiterated China’s stance that the Syrian crisis should be settled through a political transition process led by Syrian people.
“China has consistently held that foreign countries should not interfere with Syria’s internal affairs,” said An. He added that China has no private gains from the issue. China’s stance is totally based on the interests of the Syrian people.
During a recent trip to Beijing by UNArab League joint special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, China put forward a new and more detailed and practical proposal to facilitate the political settlement of the Syrian conflict. It calls for implementing a region-by-region or phase-by-phase ceasefire and establishing a transitional governing body of broad repre- sentation. The spillover effects brought by the ongoing Syrian crisis have severely impacted its neighboring countries. Latest statistics from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees show that there are more than 407,000 Syrian refugees in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey after the crisis broke out in March last year.
“If the crisis continues, it might bring disaster to the region and even influence the West. They should recognize the significance of resolving the crisis through political negotiations,” said An.
An said that at present the largest obstacle to the political settlement of the crisis is the precondition set by the West and some regional countries that Assad must step down.
Xue hopes that U.S. President Barack Obama could give up the precondition in his second term; or else the situation may become more difficult.
Obama is faced with contradictions over the Syrian crisis. On the one hand, he is under pressure from some domestic political forces to interfere in Syrian affairs; on the other hand, he wants to change the misguided policies of his predecessor George W. Bush, seeking to with- draw troops from the Middle East, Xue said.
“Obama should admit that the Syrian authorities continue to have majority domestic support by far,” said Xue.
An said it is not impossible that Obama would choose another kind of approach apart from military interference in resolving the crisis. After all, the spreading violence will be of no benefit to Washington.
He said that as the United States’ strategic attention turns eastward, grappling too much with the Syrian issue does not match its foreign policy goals.
On November 14, in his first press conference at the White House since his reelection, Obama said categorically that Washington would not arm the Syrian opposition for the moment. He also ruled out an immediate recognition of the new Syrian opposition bloc as“some sort of government in exile,” though his administration had declared its backing for the coalition just days before.