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近年来,国内投资建设乙烯项目的积极性高涨。预计“十一五”期间,乙烯产能将以16.7%的速度增长,到2010年达1702万吨/年。随后增速放缓,“十二五”和“十三五”期间增速分别为4.9%和5.6%。尽管乙烯产能持续扩张,但仍然无法满足下游产品的需求,未来我国乙烯当量消费的自给率基本在60%以下,因而,我国乙烯工业仍应加快发展。但乙烯装置的大量建设,将加大对其原料石脑油等的需求,从而加剧我国石油消费的对外依存度。因此,国家需要在乙烯建设与石油对外依存度之间进行适当平衡,以免影响国民经济的安全发展。我们认为,2010年后,煤基甲醇制乙烯技术将开发成功,国家应尽早筛选已申请的煤基甲醇制乙烯项目的布点和建设,并大力发展,以替代石油资源制乙烯的路线。
In recent years, the enthusiasm of investing in ethylene projects in China has been on the rise. It is estimated that ethylene production will grow at a rate of 16.7% during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, reaching 17.02 million tons / year by 2010. Subsequent growth slowed down. During the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan, the growth rates were 4.9% and 5.6% respectively. Although ethylene capacity continues to expand, it still can not meet the demand of downstream products. In the future, the self-sufficiency rate of ethylene equivalent consumption in China is basically below 60%. Therefore, the ethylene industry in our country should speed up its development. However, a large number of ethylene plant construction, will increase its demand for raw materials such as naphtha, thus exacerbating China’s dependence on foreign oil consumption. Therefore, the state needs to properly balance the construction of ethylene and the dependence on foreign oil so as not to affect the safe development of the national economy. We believe that after 2010, coal-based methanol to ethylene technology will be developed successfully, the state should screen as soon as possible the application of coal-based methanol ethylene project distribution and construction, and to develop to replace the oil resources of ethylene line.