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根据协整检验和因果关系检验等计量方法,利用江苏省苏北、苏中、苏南典型地区徐州市、南通市和苏州市1992~2010年物流发展和国内生产总值的年度数据,对苏北、苏中、苏南地区的物流和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:三个地区的物流发展与经济增长均存在二阶协整关系;苏北徐州市和苏南苏州市两个变量存在单向Granger因果关系,但两个变量Granger因果关系刚好相反,徐州市两个变量存在物流对经济增长单向的Granger原因,苏州市存在经济增长对物流单向的Granger原因,而苏中南通市两个变量存在双向Granger因果关系。在建立徐州市物流发展与经济增长关系误差修正模型基础上,提出了徐州市为促进经济增长的物流发展相关措施建议。
According to the cointegration test and causal relationship test and other measurement methods, the annual data of logistics development and GDP of Xuzhou, Nantong and Suzhou from 1992 to 2010 in the northern Jiangsu, The relationship between the logistics and economic growth in the north, the middle and the south of Jiangsu Province was analyzed empirically. The results show that there is a second-order cointegration relationship between logistics development and economic growth in the three regions. There is one-way Granger causation between Xuzhou city in Jiangsu province and Suzhou city in Jiangsu province. However, the two variables have the opposite causality between Granger and Xuzhou The two variables in city Granger reason that the logistics have unidirectional economic growth, the Granger cause that the economic growth in Suzhou has one-way to the logistics, while the two variables in Jiangsu-Nantong have two-way Granger causality. On the basis of establishing the error correction model of the relationship between logistics development and economic growth in Xuzhou, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the measures for the development of logistics in Xuzhou City to promote economic growth.