城市交通需求预测是城市交通规划的基础,四阶段法是交通需求预测的经典方法,分为交通生成、交通分布、交通方式划分、交通量分配四个阶段。但是在使用过程中四阶段法也暴露出了自己的缺陷,本文分析了四阶段法的缺陷,并探讨了完善后的交通需求预测模型。 The forecast of urban traffic demand is the basis of urban traffic planning. The four-stage method is a classic method of traffic demand prediction. It is divided into four phases: traffic generation, traffic distribution, traffic mode division and traffic distribution. However, the four-stage method also reveals its own defects during its use. This paper analyzes the defects of the four-stage method and explores the improved traffic demand forecasting model.