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特高拱坝整体变形性态是大坝各区域变形协同作用的结果,针对大坝变形建模分析时,采用共同影响因素(库水位、温度、时效)难以刻画不同区域变形规律差异性的问题,引入表征不同区域特有影响因素作用效应的虚拟变量,即变形特异效应量,兼顾影响变形的共同因素和特异因素,建立了变截距面板模型。针对变形变截距面板模型中特异效应量的不同型式,提出了模型型式选择的Hausman检验方法。采用广义最小二乘估计法,得到了模型各分量参数的有效估计值。最终通过工程实例验证所建特高拱坝变形变截距面板模型的有效性,弥补了传统大坝变形分析模型的不足。
The overall deformation behavior of the UHV arch dam is the result of the synergic effect of deformation in various regions of the dam. For the analysis of dam deformation modeling, it is difficult to characterize the variation of deformation rules in different regions by using common factors (reservoir water level, temperature and aging) , A virtual variable that characterizes the effect of different influencing factors in different regions is introduced, that is, the amount of deformation-specific effect and the common and special factors that affect the deformation. The variable-intercept panel model is established. Aiming at the different types of specific effects in the model of variable intercept panel, a Hausman test method for model type selection is proposed. The generalized least squares estimation method is used to obtain the effective estimation of each component parameter of the model. Finally, the validity of deformation intercept panel model of UHV arch dam is verified through engineering examples to make up for the deficiency of traditional dam deformation analysis model.