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以濉溪县1961～2010年6月中旬～9月下旬降水量、雨日为研究对象,利用曲线回归和方差分析外推、小波分析法,研究夏大豆生育期降水的演变规律及突变特征,为旱涝预警、防灾减灾提供依据。结果表明:夏大豆生长期降水量整体呈略有下降的趋势,但未达到显著水平。历年平均降水量和雨日季节变化为近似抛物线。全生育期降水量变化主周期为5 a,雨日变化主周期为14 a。大豆播种期、苗期、花荚期和鼓粒期降水量变化主周期分别为11、8、11和7 a,雨日变化主周期分别为19、12、23和5 a。根据变化主周期,利用前40～46 a资料,预测2001～2011年夏大豆全生育期降水量和鼓粒期雨日,准确率分别为63.6%和54.5%。
Based on the precipitation and rainy days from 1961 to mid-June to late September in Suixi County, the evolution and mutation characteristics of precipitation in the summer soybean were studied by using curve regression, ANOVA and ANOVA, and wavelet analysis Drought and flood warning, provide the basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. The results showed that the precipitation of summer soybean showed a slight downward trend overall, but did not reach a significant level. The average precipitation over the years and the seasonal variation of rainy days are approximate parabolas. The main period of precipitation during the whole growth period is 5 a and the main period of rain and diurnal variation is 14 a. The main periods of variation in soybean sowing, seedling, flowering and flowering were 11, 8, 11 and 7 a, respectively. The main periods of rain and diurnal variation were 19, 12, 23 and 5 a, respectively. According to the main period of change, using the data from the first 40 to 46 years, the precipitation of summer soybean during the whole growth period from 2001 to 2011 and the rain day of drum grain period were predicted, with the accuracy of 63.6% and 54.5% respectively.