Time-series analysis with a hybrid Box-Jenkins ARIMA

来源 :Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:ymlazy61
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Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades. More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model’s unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation. Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained unusacular in many areas and research practice for the last three decades. More recent, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model’s unique features to capture dif ferent patterns in the data. With three real data sets, the empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.
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期刊
我矿现有东风-200型潜孔钻机8台。该钻机由于过分强调了体积小、重量轻,而导致结构、使用方面的各种缺陷,一度不能投产使用。对此,广大工人同志非常关心,决心要把新机器改好
周汉标,男,汉族,1963年出生于广东东莞。1984年毕业于华南师范大学中文系。中国书法家协会会员、小刀汇成员、广东省书法家协会主席团成员、东莞市文联副主席、东莞市书法家
该国吉打州慕达农业发展局在州务大臣沙努西的倡议和支持下,于当地一建筑物的屋顶上投资20万林吉特(526万美元)实施一项试验性种稻的计划。农业技术人员在该建筑物上面分隔成6个方格
130米~2烧结机由一机部、冶金部组成的联合工作组于1966年5月完成设计,69年试制成功。先后在沈阳重型机器厂和上海彭浦机器厂共制造八台,投产六台。经过四年多生产实践表明: