Chinese Macroeconomic Policy Framework For Economic Reconstruction Fluctuation Variation Background

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  Abstract:After 2008, with the continuous blending and reach financial and economic impact of foreign economic impact on China's economy has been more and more influence, the traditional trade channel conduction showing weakening posture, while the financial channel conduction is gradually strengthening,With stimulus-related policies for example, monetary policy and fiscal policy to promote output growth has become a major force driving the role of technology had dropped significantly compared to the previous, and monetary policy in China's economic development is increasingly able to play its effect,However, the effectiveness of fiscal policy has constantly decreased since China's accession to the WTO, China's economic capability has been some improvement, economic fluctuations, and changes can be related to some extent to deal with the impact and smooth,This article mainly by macroeconomic fluctuations in the background variation analysis, and then to provide some framework for future economic adjustment policies of these changes for the policy, in order to provide some references for the sound development of China's economy.
  Key words:Economic macroeconomic; Policy framework; Reconstruction
  1. Variation Of Economic Fluctuations Related Research
  Foreign theories about economic fluctuations at different schools different viewpoints presented, the British economist John Maynard Keynes in 1936 in his book "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" based on the idea put forward by economic Keynesian economic theory of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks both to economic fluctuations to be divided, the American economist Robert Lucas, represented by monetary business cycle theory of random changes in the stock of money is the root of the economic fluctuations that the location, and the real business cycle theory the technology is seen as the impact on the supply side of the impact of fluctuations in the economy in recent years, with the new Keynesian theory by competitive period and gradually developed to absorb the concept of nominal prices and nominal wages, the impact of this period of currency and other nominal variables gradually become more influential, which will also be confined to the economic cycle theory of real variables in the study conclusions were further expanded.
  Law on national economic regulation and economic policy objectives by regulating the relationship between the first Nobel laureate Dutch economist Tinbergen Tinbergen proposed, that law states that if you want to achieve a particular objective, there must be a corresponding effective tool, if you want to achieve a lot of different and independent from each other between the goal, then the corresponding number of tools must not be less than the number of targets. If the number of tools into a system to be more than the target number, then it means that there are multiple channels to achieve this set of objectives. Although this is the case, but the tool itself is an independent and effective, Tinbergen rule and not as a more adequate policy guidelines.   For our part, we study the literature on the economic fluctuations are established within the framework of the traditional Keynesian economic doctrine and the new Keynesian economic doctrine on. In the Keynesian framework of the traditional mode of economic fluctuations in China are analyzed, we find that the total supply shocks, as well as the mixed impact of aggregate demand shocks constitute the main reason for China's economic fluctuations. However, if in accordance with the second new class of Keynesian economic theory to study the model in this case contains more types of impact, so in this mode the conclusion of the first model is no more unity, for example, some scholars study found that the impact of economic changes in volatility corners obvious factors to impact consumer spending and the impact of technology preferences; while some scholars believe that due to the factors of monetary policy indicators of interest rate and currency amount of overall monetary policy the lack of independence, Need to depend on other conditions exist, these reasons monetary policy shocks caused by the formation of China is the main source of economic fluctuations location; there are some scholars introduced the bank credit in a dynamic general equilibrium model, they found that the impact of credit is a certain explanatory power technological shock is possible for most of the output and consumption volatility to explain, but the response generated by the currency impact is not so obvious; of course, hold their own different views of other scholars, for example, some believe that the impact of fluctuations in government It can be seen as a very important source of volatility; others find the impact of fluctuations in the supply side to the Chinese economy caused some impact.
  Different researchers in the study of economic fluctuations, the use of different research methods, coupled with the study is at different time periods, so we control the direction for national macroeconomic policies have different perspectives. Some scholars believe that the consumer demand to stimulate technological advances more favorable than for stable economic growth, meaning; while some scholars believe that innovation and competition should be the basis of strategic supply management in order for China macroeconomic policy reform ; and then there are some scholars believe that due to the impact of the supply side of the economic fluctuations of greater impact, so the appropriate strengthening supply management is necessary.   After the above analysis of the situation, we will find in the current literature, there are still some problems: First, those with a dynamic general equilibrium model-based study did not open and a large part of the economy into account, so the actual results conclusions, often there will be some limitations, such as the conclusion was limited to domestic economic variables, foreign economic variables are rarely taken into account, this will result in the model and the reality does not meet the established phenomenon; s second aspect is reflected in a small number of external shocks and trade shocks equivalent, which in turn the role of financial factors to a certain extent have been neglected; a lot of research literature in the third point on the selected time data now has a long distance for a time at the new situation after the financial crisis, China's economic structure is formed on the consideration will be inadequate; the last thing a lot of literature for the interpretation of the policy is to stay more on the surface, no deep-level mining.
  2. Volatility Of Macroeconomic Analysis And Source
  (1) Demand shocks
  The so-called demand shocks essentially refers to the impact of consumer preferences consumer preferences and labor impact, the study found that from 2001 to 2007 and from 2008 to 2013 within the two different periods, due to the substitution of consumption and labor relations, consumer preferences impact on output and investment have a sustained positive proportion, but in the initial stage of consumption is declining due to investment in the production sector is relatively independent existence, increased consumer demand would be to stimulate further production increases for economic variables in two different periods of comparison, we find that the impact of consumer preferences impact for China's economy is showing a downward trend; for labor supply, in the year 2008, income wages with the labor supply increases gradually increased, but after, as the labor market has gradually become saturated, so even increase labor supply, wage income is showing a downward trend.
  (2) Supply shocks
  Supply shocks contains many aspects, such as the impact of the net assets, domestic and imported final goods prices and the impact of the addition of domestic intermediate goods production sector technology shocks, through research we can conclude that demand for domestic residents to remove foreign debt song factors other than in a short time the impact technology can make the most of the economic variables effectively enhance economic growth theory, one of the most important sources of economic growth is the impact of technology. If a country's economy is in a growth phase, the country's need for foreign residents bonds will be a corresponding reduction in the demand for domestic bonds will be a corresponding increase in their financial environment in the end is at an advantage or disadvantage ambient environment can net assets represented by the impact when the financial environment in a good state, Enterprise net assets will be appropriate in the growth phase, and vice versa in a downward phase, because the role of leverage, if the net assets have increased, the corporate financing capacity correspondingly increased, the production department can get more financing capital, thus resulting in increased capital requirements of the situation, so as to enhance the price of capital, from this side, it's good to verify the impact of the net assets of the investment service products, the price of capital and enhance the role of domestic financing amount, but the role of impact is only temporary, the need for capital and consumer goods appropriate production cycle, which can impact the net assets for the inhibition of economic variables in output and consumption will have a clear understanding.   (3) Policy impact
  In this article we think over time, along with the target inflation rate is varied, the monetary authorities will be its willingness to have a certain impact, when the National Bank can afford to improve their inflation target, then the national consumption, employment and output will increase after 2008 and compared, it was found to enhance the inflation target in the future, it is in many economies after 2008 than before the reaction becomes more apparent when the impact of monetary policy change after too tight, many aspects such as consumption, employment and demand for foreign bonds, showing a decline of the phenomenon. Then compare the two we find that the role of monetary policy tightening interest rates and investment to become more pronounced, the effectiveness of monetary policy has been produced before a relatively elevated.
  Overall, most of the economic variables in 2008 before and after the impact of shocks in the general direction of convergence, but different is that, after 2008, China's economy is the ability to shock has improved most of the economic variables more stable in the reaction, and China's fiscal policy than before the role is not as before so obvious, promotion of monetary policy is manifested to be more effective in its results.
  (4) Causes Fluctuation
  Many reasons will cause China's macroeconomic fluctuations before 2008 domestic economic variables such as employment, the economy and other output for China's economic fundamentals greater impact, the impact abroad, the main reason for conducting trade routes . After 2008, the greater the impact of foreign factors, as pathways become more diversified sources of finance, especially for output and consumption of both variables is more significant, the impact of technology in 2008, after the decline in the overall effect Since the financial crisis the government needs to take large-scale measures to rescue the market, so the impact of the effect of monetary policy and fiscal policy gradually increased, is also worth noting that, if the stimulus is too long to stay in practice, is to a certain extent on lifting prices, impact output still has some limitations.
  3. Under The Background Of Chinese Economic Fluctuation Variation Macroeconomic Policy Framework Recommendations Reconstruction
  Characterized by macroeconomic fluctuations and changes in our sources, we can see that since joining the WTO, our ability to respond to economic shocks smoothing is constantly elevated, the traditional trade channel conduction mode is constantly weakened, financial channels in asset prices and capital flows and the impact of these two factors for Chinese economic variables influence gradually become apparent, and the stimulus to monetary and fiscal policies for growth-oriented policy outputs have a great role in promoting but after 2008, the role of monetary policy gradually becomes stronger, and the role of fiscal policy is gradually reduced. Faced with these circumstances, we propose the following:   (1) Strategic principles and policy positioning Reconstruction
  Not only to solve the current problems of macroeconomic and financial situations, macroeconomic fluctuations but also to better respond in the future that may occur with long-term risks, making our economy more balanced, more market-oriented and open-oriented, in the current stage and the next period of time, China's macroeconomic policy framework needs to be adjusted, the first point is the strategy contains three different levels, starting with the short-term has emerged out of the economic and financial risk, improve its macro-maintained economic and financial situation of stability and the ability to continue to strengthen; second level is for those who have existed for a long time the issue of structural adjustment, go to the inventory and capacity problems and other issues, these problems are stacked against subsequent negative impact on the ability to produce continue to improve, and finally a level of long-term economic development is to be more market-oriented economic system, as well as opening up of equalization, we must build a way to sustainable development, with high-performance features of macroeconomic models and policy frameworks .
  Internal adjustment of the macroeconomic policy framework in the following areas: The first is the re-positioning of macroeconomic, employment status, balance of payments problems, financial stability and growth of these goals and the relationship between them; the second is to re-examine quantify the degree of matching and combination of different policy instruments between; the third point is to rebuild policy transmission mechanism. Next, in the adjustment process, we must have some principles to follow, so as not to deviate from the general direction of, first and foremost policy goal orientation, along with macroeconomic and financial stability issues more and more obvious, so the macro explicit objective of economic policy should focus on stability, financial stability and international balance of payments of the prices; Furthermore is the fiscal policy and monetary policy division and positioning, Monetary policy should be achieving macroeconomic policy and financial stability of the main force, while fiscal policy should focus on short-term pains of the economic situation of the restructuring will be through the provision of relying on means to ensure the welfare of society, the market Zhao Xing structural adjustment path is necessary to reduce the intervention; last point is how to implement policies and conducting operations and how to proceed. To the role of macroeconomic policy direction of the market mechanism led its main intent and purpose of conduction, in the actual operation of the process must be in a market-oriented and predictable mode of operation, do not let themselves become the cause of macroeconomic and Cause financial volatility.   From this aspect of the policy, only the short-term problems quickly and effectively get rid of, in order to better long-term problems will make the appropriate improvements in the short term the situation seems, when the capacity to carry out forward, to be able to ensure that the policy levers stability, avoid excessive speed situation arises, through analysis we can draw on the Treasury market continued to improve, enhance its liquidity, financing needs can be better for the budget deficit to solve, so that it can truly stable live leverage.
  (2) Economic restructuring
  With the integration and cross-channel trade and financial channels of international economic conditions become more diverse, China's economic situation and the economic situation in the world has been closely related to the relationship after after 2008, China's export growth rate and the current account balance growth gradually began to decline, the impact of international factors, it has been turned to the financial channels in the channel by the economic, domestic and international economic situation are constantly changing, transformation of the way the Chinese economy is a must to be carried out, prior to the first export-led economy to a domestic demand-led economy; furthermore to control the open capital account financial risks that may occur issue.
  (3) Stimulus policies to moderate
  As the financial crisis on Western countries and our country, economic endogenous technological advances to promote the growth period of the economy seems to have is gradually subsided, my country, the monetary and fiscal policy stimulus effect on the economy is significant, but at the same time it two factors impact the price is also very large, from this aspect of the opinion that if this stimulation lasts too long or do not control, it will result in high prices and even the formation of the phenomenon of resource allocation distortions, for sustained economic growth is very negative, and therefore, the government in the implementation of certain policies at a time to be in control, gradually withdraw at the right time, or to gradually return to its own role in the allocation of resources to market-oriented, Exploration adapt to new economic growth mode and method of China's economic development.
  (4) Gradual improvement of monetary policy
  Although in recent years, lending rates of financial institutions have been liberalized the lower limit, but on the whole capital price adjustment tools are still not fully play its role, the effect of the interest rate market remains to be improved, on the terms, monetary authorities to continue to accelerate the process of gradual transition to the direction of liberalization, so that the effect of monetary policy more significant. On financial stability issues, the need to further increase macro-prudential supervision and that the central bank's responsibility to put forward higher requirements, the level of financial supervision model to a gradual transition to micro-prudential macro-prudential. After the baptism of the global financial crisis, there have been more and more people began to consider the role of capital flows and financial globalization, the need for capital controls are increasingly being recognized as China for cross-border capital liquidity risk exposure and vulnerability gradually increased, the monetary authorities to take certain reservations and capital controls are necessary.
  4.Conclusion
  With the continuous development of China's new economic normal trend, in order to adapt to the era of increasingly growing demand on China's economic growth mode, as well as the structural basis of the relevant institutions need to make changes and adjustments, the degree of openness of our economy is moving into a new phase , which are on China's macroeconomic policy framework put forward higher requirements, after the economic crisis, the emergence of macroeconomic volatility variation, we want within the main changes of the internal and external coordination while taking into account, demand-management changes the demand, the supply of dual management by quantitative tools into a market-oriented price-based tools for the relevant institution to do in-depth reform, promote the healthy development of China's economy from nature.
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