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棉苗期棉蚜群的空间模型,当蚜株率在5％以下时符合负二项分布,蚜株率在5％以上则符合Polya-Eggenberger核心分布,在防治上应消灭于这个点片发生阶段。 根据这种极不均衡的分布型,在防治试验的调查资料应用变量分析时,应将原资料用对数代换后进行,可以得到比较精确的结果,与生产实践经验相符;也符合变量分析主要基本假设: (1)各种试验误差应成常态分布; (2)各次观察误差必须有一共同的变量; (3)处理效应与环境效应应该是可加的。 应用序贯分析检定棉蚜防治适期(蚜害株20％),定k=0.4、kp_1=0.2、kp_0=0.1、α=19=0.05,求出决定防治与否的两条分领域的平行线方程为: a_m=0.143m-5.7625 r_m=0.143m+5.7625它们可供实践中参考运用,以节约人力物力。
The spatial model of the cotton aphid population at cotton seedling stage met the negative binomial distribution when the aphid strain rate was below 5%, and the polya-Eggenberger core distribution was above 5% at the aphid strain level, which should be eliminated at this point stage. According to this extremely uneven distribution type, when applying the variable analysis in the investigation data of prevention and cure test, the original data should be replaced by logarithm, so that more accurate results can be obtained, which is consistent with the production practice experience. It also meets the requirements of variable analysis The main basic assumptions are as follows: (1) All kinds of experimental errors should be normal distribution; (2) Each observation error must have a common variable; (3) Processing effect and environmental effect should be additive. Sequential analysis was used to determine the control period of cotton aphid (20% of the aphid strain), determining k = 0.4, kp_1 = 0.2, kp_0 = 0.1 and α = 19 = 0.05. The equation of the line is: a_m = 0.143m-5.7625r_m = 0.143m + 5.7625 They can be used for reference in practice to save manpower and material resources.