2008年7月15日至8月29日,国际金融市场呈现出“三金异动”的新动向:美元汇率止跌反弹,油价金价分化、国际资本流动的潜在变化以及美国问题的“全球化”。由于美国经济的短期相对强势具有偶然性,且全球投资多元化的长期趋势难以改变,所以我们判断此番“三金异动”不可能是长期趋势,而只是短期波动。由涨变跌,全球股市趋势错配。“三金异动”背后的原因主要是世界经济周期的 From July 15 to August 29, 2008, the international financial market showed a new trend of “three gold transactions”: the rebound of the U.S. dollar, the price differential of gold and oil, the potential changes in international capital flows, and the “ Globalization. ” Since the short-term relative strength of the U.S. economy is contingent and the long-term trend of diversification in global investment is difficult to change, we can conclude that this “three-currency transaction” can not be a long-term trend but only a short-term fluctuation. From up to down, the global stock market trend mismatch. The reason behind the “three gold transactions” is mainly the world economic cycle