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一、下一代技术的特点是智能化, 趣味化,利用率高要较准确地预测某一年的技术进展情况是困难的,从时间上来说也是大短了。现将最近三年间的科学进展作个预测,也就是说九十年代初的科学技术进展将是什么样子。要预测技术的进展时,必须同时密切注视着今后社会变化的方向。现在的日本已遇到巨额的贸易顺差和日元急剧升值的问题,产业也碰到了巨大的障碍。这是因为,二次大战后出口中心主义、生产中心主义和工作中心主义是支撑着日本经济高速度发展的三根支柱。然而,这三根支柱似乎都已处于被全面否定的命运了。为了越过这高大的屏障,日本必须从以往的出口、生产和工作这三个中心主义脱身并作彻底的意识革命,以适应时代的新潮流。然而,这种意识革命也必须与日本需要改变现状的这种要求紧密结合起来。而能满足日本这种要求的正是在继续迅速发展的新科学。于是,最重要的是用什么眼光来看社会和技术之间的关系以及如何去发展适合于社会需要的技术。要看透某项新技术是否有发展前途,其着眼点应是,该项技术能否给人们一种快乐感和趣味性,而不单看只给人们带来方便就行了。同样的道理,能把人们的能力提高好多倍的技术即智能技术则可胜于单纯的省力技术。
First, the next-generation technology is characterized by intelligence, interest, and high utilization rate. It is difficult to accurately predict the technological progress of a certain year. From the perspective of time, it is also big and short. The prediction of scientific progress in the past three years is now a prediction, that is, what the scientific and technological progress in the early 1990s will look like. To predict the progress of technology, we must also closely monitor the direction of social change in the future. Japan now has a huge trade surplus and a sharp appreciation of the yen, and the industry has encountered huge obstacles. This is because, after the Second World War, export centerism, production centerism, and work centerism are the three pillars that support the rapid development of the Japanese economy. However, all three pillars seem to have been completely negated. In order to overcome this high barrier, Japan must detach itself from the three centralisms of export, production, and work in the past and make a thorough conscious revolution to adapt to the new trend of the times. However, this ideological revolution must also be closely integrated with Japan’s need to change the status quo. It is the new science that continues to develop rapidly that can meet this demand of Japan. Therefore, the most important thing is to look at the relationship between society and technology and how to develop technologies that suit social needs. To see if there is a promising future for a new technology, the focus should be on whether the technology can give people a sense of happiness and fun, not just to bring convenience to people. By the same token, the technology that can improve people’s ability many times, that is, smart technology can be better than simple labor-saving technology.