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基于生物学Verhulst模型,以原始累积沉降量时间序列为基础建立等间隔Verhulst地基沉降预测模型;并在此模型基础上,引入加权平均弱化缓冲算子(WAWBO),采用动态定权方法,建立非等间隔灰色Verhulst模型。借助珠海横琴能源站项目地基沉降监测数据,分别检验等间隔和非等间隔Verhulst模型的可靠性,并对两种模型预测结果与三点法,双曲线法,Asaoka法预测结果进行对比分析;研究结果表明:两种Verhulst模型分别满足“合格”和“好”的精度等级要求;与常用的三点法,Asaoka法,双曲线法计算结果相比,非等间隔灰色Verhulst模型计算值更接近真实值。
Based on the biological Verhulst model, an equivalent interval Verhulst foundation settlement prediction model is established based on the original cumulative settlement time series. Based on this model, the weighted average weakening buffer operator (WAWBO) is introduced, and the dynamic weighting method is used to establish the non- Equal Gray Verhulst Model. Based on the monitoring data of foundation settlement of Zhuhai Hengqin Energy Project, the reliability of equally spaced and non-equally spaced Verhulst models was tested separately. The prediction results of two models were contrasted with the three-point method, hyperbola method and Asaoka method. The results show that the two Verhulst models satisfy the precision grade of “qualified” and “good” respectively. Compared with the commonly used three-point method, Asaoka method and hyperbolic method, the non-interval gray Verhulst model The calculated value is closer to the true value.