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在回顾了过去10年国内重要农产品区域间供需状况并分析了加入WTO后粮棉和畜产品等重要农产品的区域间供需变化趋势后,对各重要农产品主产区农民就业和收入影响进行了探讨。认为我国加入WTO后粮食主产区的供需平衡所受影响高于全国水平,我国缺粮地区将继续增加,且缺口越来越大,主要集中于经济发达的南方地区;余粮地区余粮数额越来越少,并集中在北方产区,呈现两极化趋势、国内棉花仍将继续保持现有的区域供求态势,但国外棉花对国内市场的冲击将逐步显现。我国畜产品的供求将继续保持多元化格局,东部地区从国际市场的进口将会增加。
After reviewing the supply and demand of key agro-products in the past 10 years and analyzing the trend of inter-regional supply and demand of important agro-products such as grain, cotton and livestock products after accession to the WTO, the employment and income impact of peasants in major producing areas of major agricultural products were discussed . It is considered that the balance of supply and demand balance in the main grain-producing areas in our country is higher than the national level after China’s accession to the WTO. Our country’s grain-deficient areas will continue to increase with more and more gaps, with a focus on the economically developed southern areas. The less it is concentrated in the northern areas, showing a polarization trend. The domestic cotton supply will continue to maintain the current regional supply and demand situation, but the impact of foreign cotton on the domestic market will gradually appear. The supply and demand of livestock products in our country will continue to maintain a diversified pattern, and the import from the international market in the eastern region will increase.