30年前,在《电子学》杂志里的一篇不起眼的文章中,37岁的戈登·穆尔(他是个谦逊的科学家)系统地阐述了后来举世闻名的穆尔法则。他指出,硅芯片的能力和复杂性将每年翻一番,此后速度将降到每18个月翻一番——而且成本会按同样比例下降。这就是说如果30年中某个东西以每18个月翻一番的速度发展的话,那它将从1增加到超过100万。穆尔的预测与现实情况非常接近:目前的千兆比特芯片比其前身——晶体管强400万倍。 Thirty years ago, in an obscure article in the journal “Electronics”, 37-year-old Gordon Moore (he was a humble scientist) systematically elaborated on the later world-famous Moore’s Law. He pointed out that the capacity and complexity of silicon chips will double every year, after which the speed will be reduced to double every 18 months - and the cost will decrease by the same proportion. This means that if something develops at the rate of doubling every 18 months in 30 years, it will increase from 1 to more than 1 million. Moore’s prediction is very close to reality: The current gigabit chip is 4 million times stronger than its predecessor, the transistor.