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以财务参数为依据的敏感性分析现时惯常用于预测矿山项目的财务后果，在可行性研究阶段尤其是这样。风险分析正在得到承认，但此法通常仍然几乎只局限于权衡财务参数变化的效果。在差不多所有的矿山项目中，虽然单个最敏感的因素是矿石储量，但在敏感性分析和风险分析里，这个因素不是被忽视就是用得不当。与财务参数不同，矿石储量的组分（各采矿块段的品位和吨数）是与该矿体内地点有关的，因此实际接触（开采）到这些组分是时间的函数，时间对于预测现金流具有决定性的影响。将这些基本概念纳入矿山项目的风险分析内是至关重要的。本文将揭示矿石储量这一不确定性对某小型金矿企业的可行性研究和露天矿设计的影响。文中采用地质统计学模拟作为一种定量方法来评估，由于使用根据稀少数据估出的品位与吨数而产生的风险。
Sensitivity analysis based on financial parameters is now commonly used to predict the financial consequences of mine projects, especially during the feasibility study phase. Risk analysis is gaining acceptance, but the law is still often confined almost exclusively to weighing the effects of changes in financial parameters. Of the almost all mine projects, although the single most sensitive factor is ore reserves, this factor is neither neglected nor properly used in sensitivity analysis and risk analysis. Unlike the financial parameters, the composition of the ore reserves (grade and tonnage of each mining block) is related to the site within the orebody and therefore the actual contact (mined) to these components is a function of time and the time for the forecast cash flow Has a decisive impact. It is crucial to include these basic concepts in the risk analysis of mine projects. This article will reveal the impact of the uncertainty of ore reserves on the feasibility of a small gold mining enterprise and the design of open pit mines. The paper uses geostatistical modeling as a quantitative method to assess the risks arising from the use of grade and tonnage estimated from sparse data.