提出了一种在电力市场环境下自动发电控制 ( AGC)辅助服务的“概率学先验定价”和“统计学后验考核”的新方法。文中首先发展了概率学实用当量定价方法 ,该方法利用随机生产模拟技术和当量电价原理 ,事先评估出 AGC的容量价值和为了提供 AGC服务预留 AGC容量而产生的机会损失成本 ,由此两项成本构成了 AGC服务的先验价值和价格。进一步 ,利用实时记录 ,提出了一种基于统计学的后验考核和结算方法 ,即计算发电机组收到的 AGC指令和实际执行的机组有功出力之间的“相关系数”,依此建立了基于概率学的 AGC跟踪能力和服务质量的后验考核指标和结算方法。与此相应 ,还建议建立市场上有效的“AGC保证金制度”。最后 ,给出了以我国某电力系统数据为背景的算例。算例表明 ,该方法能很好地体现 AGC平衡负荷随机波动的本质 ,也能很好地发挥当量电价方法的长处 ,再辅以市场上有效的 AGC保证金制度 ,可成为一个很好的 AGC定价和考核的新方法和新体制 A new method, “Probability a priori pricing” and “statistical a posteriori test”, is proposed for automatic generation control (AGC) ancillary services in a power market environment. In the paper, firstly, we develop a probabilistic utility equivalence pricing method that uses the stochastic production simulation technique and the equivalent electricity price principle to evaluate in advance the capacity value of AGC and the opportunity loss cost to provide the AGC capacity to reserve AGC service, Cost constitutes the a priori value and price of AGC service. Furthermore, based on the real-time record, a new method of posterior checking and settlement based on statistics is proposed, which is to calculate the “correlation coefficient” between the AGC command received by the generator set and the actual output of the generator. Based on this, Probabilistic AGC tracking ability and service quality posterior assessment index and settlement method. Accordingly, it is also proposed to establish a market-effective “AGC margin system.” Finally, an example is given based on the data of a certain power system in our country. The example shows that this method can well reflect the nature of AGC equilibrium load fluctuations, and also can well play the strengths of the equivalent electricity price method, supplemented by the effective market AGC margin system, which can be a good AGC pricing And assessment of the new methods and new system