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天花是最危险的生物剂之一,目前全世界已经消除天花疾病,但发生天花生物恐怖袭击的可能性仍然存在。大规模接种天花疫苗是最有效的天花生物恐怖预防措施,但有可能会导致大量接种者产生严重的不良反应甚至死亡。因此,在存在天花恐怖事件可能性但尚未发生的当前,保有一定比例的天花免疫人群会减少真正发生时的整体损失。本文从最小化质量调整生命年损失的角度,探讨国家在不同天花生物恐怖袭击风险下应保有的最佳免疫人群比例。
Smallpox is one of the most dangerous biological agents and the world has now been able to eliminate smallpox disease, but the possibility of a smallpox attack persists. Large-scale vaccination of smallpox vaccine is the most effective preventive measures against smallpox, but may cause serious adverse reactions or even death of large numbers of vaccinates. Thus, in the present, but not yet possible, the possibility of a smallpox event, a proportion of smallpox immunization groups will reduce the overall loss that would otherwise have occurred. In this paper, from the perspective of minimizing the mass loss of life years, this paper explores the proportion of the best immunized population that the state should keep under the risk of different smallpox attacks.