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The 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee’s Fifth Plenary Session in late October charted the course for the country’s economic and social development over the next five years. The ruling Party’s proposal on China’s 13th FiveYear Plan （2016-20） adopted at the plenum reaffirmed the goal of building a moderately prosperous society by 2020. The proposed plan also put forward five focal points for China’s development： innovation-driven， balanced， green， open and universal. Columnists with Chinese media outlets have shared their views on the plan. Excerpts follow：
Zhou Junsheng （www.gmw.cn）： The goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 was first established in 2002 and reiterated during the just concluded Fifth Plenary Session. But it is a challenging goal. As China shifts from high-speed economic growth to a new normal of medium-high growth， it is facing pressure from a restructuring of the economy. This year’s third quarter GDP growth rate dropped below 7 percent. If the downward trend of economic growth continues in the next five years， doubling the 2010 GDP and percapita income of rural and urban residents by 2020 will be hard to achieve.
Meanwhile， measures such as investment and monetary expansion that are often employed to spur growth will have a limited effect. To combat these challenges， the fifth plenary session established the concept of striving for innovation-driven， balanced， green， open and universal development.
The five-pronged strategy will guide China’s
social and economic development in the next five years. The five development concepts， systematically explained in the fifth plenary session’s communiqué， represent the lessons learned since China introduced the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s as well as innovations it has made in the country’s social and economic governance systems in recent years.
China has entered the countdown period for achieving a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Results gained over the past 30 years or so have provided a solid foundation. Nevertheless， problems remain. For example， vested interest groups formed in the early reform years are eating up the benefits of economic and social development that should have been shared by all. To solve this， China needs to comprehensively deepen reform to break the vested interest groups that hinder social and economic progress， unleash market vitality and maintain economic growth. Ma Guangyuan （Nanfang Metropolis Daily）： The central goal of the proposed 13th Five-Year Plan is to complete building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. The key to achieving this goal lies in innovation. The fifth plenary session upholds development as the top priority， though the emphasis has shifted to improving the quality and efficiency of growth. The meeting proposed five focal points with innovation-driven development topping the list. It’s impractical for China to continue its economic growth pattern driven simply by investing and imitating other countries over the next five years because such a path has hit a glass ceiling.
Tyler Cowen， a professor at George Mason University in Virginia in the United States， stated in his book The Great Stagnation that the U.S. economy entered a stagnation period after the mid-1970s. He attributed the development to two causes： First， the disappearance of the “low-hanging fruit” that the United States had enjoyed since the 17th century， such as free land， immigrant labor and powerful new technologies. Second， the country reached a“technological plateau.” He holds that most in- ventions in the United States， such as electricity， cars， trains， planes， printers and cameras were created before 1940. Apart from the computer and the Internet， the country has had almost no epoch-making inventions since the 1940s.
As a matter of fact， the stagnation the United States faces is also relevant in China， which has gone through over 30 years of rapid economic expansion. Currently， the traditional growth engines， including the manufacturing sector， the demographic dividend， investment， real estate， exports and consumption， are losing momentum. The growth model which mimics and aims to overtake the West has lost steam. China is left with only two options： making breakthroughs in development through innovation or falling into the middle-income trap.
However， we need to clarify what innovation is and how it should be done. The biggest mistake in the past was to equate innovation with technological innovation. The fifth plenary session put forth the view of all-around innovation encompassing political theories， institutions， science， technology and culture， and it placed innovation of political theories and institutional innovation at a predominant position. This represents big perceptional progress.
Douglass C. North and Robert Paul Thomas attribute the rise of the West to institutional arrangements in their book The Rise of the Western World： a New Economic History. They point out that the UK had paved the way for the Industrial Revolution by developing modern fiscal， property rights， patent and financial systems. Institutions such as the Great Charter of 1215， which restrained royal power， the earliest patent system in human history that was put in place in 1624， the first central bank in the world—the Bank of England—that was established in 1694， and the London Stock Exchange established in 1773 all served to lay an institutional foundation for technological progress. The fifth plenary session announced that the government would establish property rights， investment， financing， wealth distribution， talent cultivation and employment systems conducive to innovation. This focus on institutional innovation echoes the UK’s institutional development before the Industrial Revolution and represents a more profound understanding of innovation.
The biggest obstacle for China in becoming an innovation-driven country doesn’t lie in technology. China is a large exporter of hi-tech products， though it still has a big gap to fill with more technologically advanced countries in some key and original technologies. The real constraints are the institutions. For example， China doesn’t offer adequate protection for intellectual property， and its financial system doesn’t provide enough support for innovators.
Yan Yilong （People’s Daily Overseas Edition）： Overseas readers may be more concerned with what the 13th Five-Year Plan will deliver to the world， particularly the concept of open development proposed during the fifth plenary session.
The concept symbolizes a major shift in China’s global role. China will change its position from managing its own affairs to dealing with international matters with a global perspective. In the next five years， the Chinese economy will keep medium-high growth， which will be of great importance for the global economy. China will continue to create opportunities for the world by assuming a more open， active， constructive and responsible role.
A more open China will provide greater investment opportunities for the rest of the world. Last year， foreign direct investment （FDI） to China reached $129 billion， making the country the biggest FDI destination. Over the next five years， China will fully implement the national treatment principle while specifying sectors off limits to foreign investors in a “negative list” to facilitate foreign investment.
China will encourage its companies to have a global presence and inject new vitality to the world economy. Last year， outbound direct investment reached over $100 billion and contracts for overseas projects amounted to nearly $200 billion. China will redouble its efforts to pursue the Belt and Road Initiative by promoting international industrial and equipment manufacturing cooperation in order to help boost economic growth in countries involved in the initiative.
China will push for the establishment of a more just and fairer global governance system. It will take a more active part in global economic governance and promote the formulation of new rules and mechanisms conducive to a cooperative world economic order based on multilateral cooperation.
The fifth plenary session made it clear that China will be committed to shouldering international responsibilities， helping advance talks for confronting climate change and implementing the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In particular， it will take effective measures to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 in order to fulfill its emission reduction promises.
The coming five years will further prove that China’s peaceful rise is beneficial to the world， and a more powerful China will promote the lofty causes of peace and development.
Zhou Junsheng （www.gmw.cn）： The goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 was first established in 2002 and reiterated during the just concluded Fifth Plenary Session. But it is a challenging goal. As China shifts from high-speed economic growth to a new normal of medium-high growth， it is facing pressure from a restructuring of the economy. This year’s third quarter GDP growth rate dropped below 7 percent. If the downward trend of economic growth continues in the next five years， doubling the 2010 GDP and percapita income of rural and urban residents by 2020 will be hard to achieve.
Meanwhile， measures such as investment and monetary expansion that are often employed to spur growth will have a limited effect. To combat these challenges， the fifth plenary session established the concept of striving for innovation-driven， balanced， green， open and universal development.
The five-pronged strategy will guide China’s
social and economic development in the next five years. The five development concepts， systematically explained in the fifth plenary session’s communiqué， represent the lessons learned since China introduced the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s as well as innovations it has made in the country’s social and economic governance systems in recent years.
China has entered the countdown period for achieving a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Results gained over the past 30 years or so have provided a solid foundation. Nevertheless， problems remain. For example， vested interest groups formed in the early reform years are eating up the benefits of economic and social development that should have been shared by all. To solve this， China needs to comprehensively deepen reform to break the vested interest groups that hinder social and economic progress， unleash market vitality and maintain economic growth. Ma Guangyuan （Nanfang Metropolis Daily）： The central goal of the proposed 13th Five-Year Plan is to complete building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. The key to achieving this goal lies in innovation. The fifth plenary session upholds development as the top priority， though the emphasis has shifted to improving the quality and efficiency of growth. The meeting proposed five focal points with innovation-driven development topping the list. It’s impractical for China to continue its economic growth pattern driven simply by investing and imitating other countries over the next five years because such a path has hit a glass ceiling.
Tyler Cowen， a professor at George Mason University in Virginia in the United States， stated in his book The Great Stagnation that the U.S. economy entered a stagnation period after the mid-1970s. He attributed the development to two causes： First， the disappearance of the “low-hanging fruit” that the United States had enjoyed since the 17th century， such as free land， immigrant labor and powerful new technologies. Second， the country reached a“technological plateau.” He holds that most in- ventions in the United States， such as electricity， cars， trains， planes， printers and cameras were created before 1940. Apart from the computer and the Internet， the country has had almost no epoch-making inventions since the 1940s.
As a matter of fact， the stagnation the United States faces is also relevant in China， which has gone through over 30 years of rapid economic expansion. Currently， the traditional growth engines， including the manufacturing sector， the demographic dividend， investment， real estate， exports and consumption， are losing momentum. The growth model which mimics and aims to overtake the West has lost steam. China is left with only two options： making breakthroughs in development through innovation or falling into the middle-income trap.
However， we need to clarify what innovation is and how it should be done. The biggest mistake in the past was to equate innovation with technological innovation. The fifth plenary session put forth the view of all-around innovation encompassing political theories， institutions， science， technology and culture， and it placed innovation of political theories and institutional innovation at a predominant position. This represents big perceptional progress.
Douglass C. North and Robert Paul Thomas attribute the rise of the West to institutional arrangements in their book The Rise of the Western World： a New Economic History. They point out that the UK had paved the way for the Industrial Revolution by developing modern fiscal， property rights， patent and financial systems. Institutions such as the Great Charter of 1215， which restrained royal power， the earliest patent system in human history that was put in place in 1624， the first central bank in the world—the Bank of England—that was established in 1694， and the London Stock Exchange established in 1773 all served to lay an institutional foundation for technological progress. The fifth plenary session announced that the government would establish property rights， investment， financing， wealth distribution， talent cultivation and employment systems conducive to innovation. This focus on institutional innovation echoes the UK’s institutional development before the Industrial Revolution and represents a more profound understanding of innovation.
The biggest obstacle for China in becoming an innovation-driven country doesn’t lie in technology. China is a large exporter of hi-tech products， though it still has a big gap to fill with more technologically advanced countries in some key and original technologies. The real constraints are the institutions. For example， China doesn’t offer adequate protection for intellectual property， and its financial system doesn’t provide enough support for innovators.
Yan Yilong （People’s Daily Overseas Edition）： Overseas readers may be more concerned with what the 13th Five-Year Plan will deliver to the world， particularly the concept of open development proposed during the fifth plenary session.
The concept symbolizes a major shift in China’s global role. China will change its position from managing its own affairs to dealing with international matters with a global perspective. In the next five years， the Chinese economy will keep medium-high growth， which will be of great importance for the global economy. China will continue to create opportunities for the world by assuming a more open， active， constructive and responsible role.
A more open China will provide greater investment opportunities for the rest of the world. Last year， foreign direct investment （FDI） to China reached $129 billion， making the country the biggest FDI destination. Over the next five years， China will fully implement the national treatment principle while specifying sectors off limits to foreign investors in a “negative list” to facilitate foreign investment.
China will encourage its companies to have a global presence and inject new vitality to the world economy. Last year， outbound direct investment reached over $100 billion and contracts for overseas projects amounted to nearly $200 billion. China will redouble its efforts to pursue the Belt and Road Initiative by promoting international industrial and equipment manufacturing cooperation in order to help boost economic growth in countries involved in the initiative.
China will push for the establishment of a more just and fairer global governance system. It will take a more active part in global economic governance and promote the formulation of new rules and mechanisms conducive to a cooperative world economic order based on multilateral cooperation.
The fifth plenary session made it clear that China will be committed to shouldering international responsibilities， helping advance talks for confronting climate change and implementing the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In particular， it will take effective measures to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 in order to fulfill its emission reduction promises.
The coming five years will further prove that China’s peaceful rise is beneficial to the world， and a more powerful China will promote the lofty causes of peace and development.