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根据航班离港流程及滑出时间预测的问题属性,将滑出过程分解为无障碍滑行至跑道端及在跑道端排队等待起飞两个阶段。分析了进离港航班对滑出时间的影响,提出了一种场面交通状况衡量指标及基于该指标的无障碍滑出时间计算模型。并将跑道提供服务的过程建模为M/G/1/∞随机服务系统,建立了基于排队论的等待起飞时间预测模型。以北京首都国际机场航班运行数据为例,使用单个航班及以15min为间隔的平均滑出时间的预测准确率验证了模型的有效性,与首都机场当前的滑出时间计算模型进行对比,预测准确率显著提高。
According to the problem attributes predicted by the flight departure process and the sliding-out time, the sliding-out process is decomposed into barrier-free taxiing to the runway end and waiting at the runway end for two phases of take-off. The impact of incoming departure on the sliding-out time is analyzed. A traffic measurement index and a calculation model of barrier-free sliding-out time based on this index are proposed. The process of runway service is modeled as M / G / 1 / ∞ stochastic service system, and a queuing theory based waiting time forecasting model is established. Taking Beijing Capital International Airport flight operation data as an example, the validity of the model is verified by using a single flight and the prediction accuracy of the average slip-out time at 15min intervals, compared with the current calculation model of the slip-out time at Capital Airport. The prediction accuracy The rate is significantly higher.