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为解决加氢装置换热器中NH_4Cl结晶机理不清、结晶温度预测难、实际指导关联性差的问题,以某加氢改质装置换热器失效为研究对象,采用工艺过程模拟,基于实际操作工况进行工艺计算分析,明确加氢换热器NH_4Cl结晶失效风险,揭示NH_4Cl结晶沉积腐蚀机理,同时确定换热器NH_4Cl结晶温度主要影响因素。运用偏最小二乘法构建多变量下加氢换热器NH_4Cl结晶温度预测模型。结果表明,换热器E1103A/B中存在NH_4Cl结晶风险,结晶温度为188℃。反应流出物系统中压力、氯含量及氮含量是影响NH_4Cl结晶温度的主要因素,所建立的预测模型具有良好的精度(最大相对误差为2.73%,平均相对误差MRE为1.34%,均方根误差RMSE为3.09),实现了NH_4Cl结晶温度的定量预测。
In order to solve the problem of unclear NH4Cl crystallization mechanism, difficult prediction of crystallization temperature and poor practical guidance in the heat exchanger of hydrogenation unit, the failure of the heat exchanger of a hydrogenation and upgrading unit was taken as the research object. Based on the simulation of the process and the actual operation Process calculation and analysis of the process, clear hydrogenation heat exchanger NH_4Cl crystallization failure risk, reveal the crystallization mechanism of NH_4Cl corrosion, and determine the heat exchanger NH_4Cl crystallization temperature of the main factors. Using Partial Least - Squares to Construct Prediction Model of NH_4Cl Crystallization Temperature for Multivariable Hydrogen - removing Heat Exchanger. The results show that there is risk of crystallization of NH_4Cl in the heat exchanger E1103A / B, the crystallization temperature is 188 ℃. The pressure, the chlorine content and the nitrogen content in the reaction effluent system are the main factors affecting the crystallization temperature of NH_4Cl. The prediction model established has good accuracy (the maximum relative error is 2.73%, the average relative error MRE is 1.34%, the root mean square error RMSE 3.09), to achieve a quantitative prediction of NH4Cl crystallization temperature.