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传统农业、工业化农业和现代农业分别存在马尔萨斯稳态、索洛稳态和现代持续增长稳态三种不同的产出增长结构。传统农业经由工业化农业向现代农业的发展,亦即马尔萨斯稳态经索洛稳态向现代持续增长稳态的渐进过渡。离开工业化的外部冲击,难以设想突破传统农业低技术均衡的前一种过渡;而人口生产转型则是工业化农业成长为现代农业的内生动力。当前中国农业发展政策调节的基本目标,仍是通过劳动力转移继续完成马尔萨斯稳态向索洛稳态的过渡,同时应前瞻性地为人力资本引入农业生产创设条件。
Traditional agriculture, industrial agriculture and modern agriculture exist in three different output growth structures: Malthus’ steady state, Solow steady state and modern sustainable growth. The development of traditional agriculture through industrial agriculture to modern agriculture, that is, the gradual transition of Malthus’s steady state from Solow’s steady state to its steady and steady growth towards the present. From the external impact of industrialization, it is difficult to envisage breaking the previous transition of the low-tech equilibrium of traditional agriculture; and the transformation of population production is the endogenous driving force for industrialized agriculture to become modern agriculture. At present, the basic goal of China’s agricultural development policy adjustment is to continue to complete the transition from Malthus’s steady state to Solow’s steady state through labor transfer, and at the same time, forward-looking conditions should be created for the introduction of agricultural production into human capital.