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纺织板块去年整体业绩明显增长,这除了各上市公司自身的努力外,与外部经营环境的好转密不可分,特别是出口大幅增加、原料价格较低等因素影响较大。但从今年情况看,相关因素已发生了一些变化。 今年第一季度纺织行业出口仅比去年同期增长2.1％,比全国出口增长14.5％的幅度低12.4个百分点;国内棉价从去年第四季度开始上涨,目前已比去年初上涨了20％多;国内市场需求受人们经济实力的制约,现实的购买力仍然有待开发。此外,希望一加入WTO就能带来出口的大幅增长,是不实现的。 综合这些因素看,纺织板块一些上市公司今年经营业绩可能不会保持去年的增长幅度,有的甚至可能出现下降。投资者应对此板块要细加分析。
The overall performance of the textile segment increased significantly last year. Apart from the efforts of listed companies themselves, the textile sector is inseparable from the improvement of the external business environment. In particular, the sharp increase in exports and the lower raw material prices have a greater impact on the overall performance. However, judging from the current situation this year, some relevant changes have taken place. In the first quarter of this year, the export of the textile industry increased by only 2.1% over the same period of last year and 12.4% lower than that of the national export growth of 14.5%. The domestic cotton price started to rise from the fourth quarter of last year and has now risen more than 20% Demand in the domestic market is constrained by the economic strength of the people and the purchasing power of reality remains to be developed. In addition, it is unrealistic to hope that the substantial increase in exports as soon as China’s entry into the WTO can be achieved. Based on these factors, the operating performance of some listed companies in the textile sector may not maintain their growth rate last year, and some may even decline. Investors should be more careful analysis of this section.