总统选举是美国政治体系的重要组成部分,受到各方面因素的影响。就大选结果而言,哪个党上台执政是多种合力相互作用的结果,但从根本上讲,选民在历次大选中的党派取向则是决定大选结果的最直接作用因素。选民的党派取向既具有相对的稳定性,也有相对的变化性,受到一定阶段基于利益诉求基础上众多变量的影响。本文试图以1980—2008年美国八次总统选举的统计材料为依 The presidential election is an important part of the political system in the United States and is affected by various factors. As far as election results are concerned, which party is in power is the result of many forces of mutual cooperation. However, fundamentally speaking, the party’s orientation in all general elections is the most direct factor that determines the outcome of the election. The voter’s party orientation has both relative stability and relative variability, and is influenced by many variables based on interest demands at a certain stage. This article attempts to follow eight to eight U.S. presidential election statistics in 1980-2008