论文部分内容阅读
2016年将会是中国经济转型至消费和服务主导的关键年份。本文分析中国的转型会否按预期发生。中国经济转型的关键取决于中国政府能否接受结构转变带来的不可避免的代价。本文的五个重点主题是:货币、人口结构变化、经济增长模式的转变、消费模式改变和地缘政治取向。人民币的走势、中国政府意愿接受由改革带来的企业阵痛的程度,这两个相互关联的问题将会决定2016年中国经济是由消费或出口主导。
2016 will be the key year for China’s economy to shift to consumption and service. This article analyzes whether China’s transition will happen as expected. The key to China’s economic restructuring depends on whether the Chinese government can accept the inevitable costs of structural changes. The five key themes of this paper are: currency, population structure changes, changes in economic growth patterns, changes in consumption patterns and geopolitical orientation. The trend of RMB, the Chinese government’s willingness to accept the pain caused by the reform, these two interdependent issues will determine that in 2016 China’s economy will be dominated by consumption or exports.