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目的基于控制图法进行手足口病的预警界值分析,对宜昌市手足口病开展预警研究。方法利用2009~2014年宜昌市手足口病报告数据建立预警数据库,采用移动百分位数法建立预警模型,通过计算灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值及绘制ROC曲线,优选出宜昌市手足口病合适预警界值。结果手足口病的合适预警界值为P85,在该预警界值下的灵敏度为91.67%,特异度为97.50%,阳性预测值为91.67%,阴性预测值为97.50%。结论传染病预警界值的设定应根据传染病发病特点并结合当地疫情信息进行优选,以提高传染病疫情监测的预警能力。
Objective To forecast the hand-foot-mouth disease based on the control chart and to carry out the early-warning research on hand-foot-mouth disease in Yichang City. Methods Early warning database was established by using report data of HFMD in Yichang City from 2009 to 2014. Early warning model was established by moving the percentile method. By calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value and drawing ROC curve, Yichang City hand, foot and mouth disease suitable warning threshold. Results The suitable precautionary threshold value of HFMD was P85. The sensitivity and specificity of the precautionary threshold were 91.67%, 97.50%, 91.67% and 97.50% respectively. Conclusion The pre-warning cut-off value of infectious diseases should be set according to the characteristics of infectious diseases and local epidemic information to improve the early-warning ability of infectious disease surveillance.