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目的评估2010—2014年宁波市流行性感冒(流感)相关超额死亡情况,为流感防控工作提供参考。方法采用率差模型方法,分析2010—2014年宁波市的死亡数据和流感监测数据,估计流感流行导致的流感和肺炎(PI)、呼吸和循环系统疾病(RC)、缺血性心脏病(IHD)、慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)和全死因(AC)这5种死因的超额死亡率。结果 2010—2014年宁波市流感活动占优势时期(P1时期)共37周;其中2010—2013年流行优势毒株分别为B型、H1N1、B型和H3N2,2014年为H1N1和H3N2。2010—2014年宁波市全人群AC平均每周超额死亡率为2.54/10万;各年份全人群AC超额死亡率分别为12.66/10万、15.19/10万,27.86/10万、12.66/10万和25.32/10万;全人群5种死因(PI、RC、IHD、COPD和AC)年平均超额死亡率分别为1.68/10万、12.83/10万、1.34/10万、0.84/10万和18.74/10万;各年度均以RC超额死亡率最高;≥65岁人群5类死因年平均超额死亡率均高于全人群平均水平,0~4岁人群5类死因的年平均超额死亡率均低于全人群平均水平。结论宁波市流感活动占优势时期主要在冬春季,≥65岁老年人以及慢性心肺疾病患者因流感引起的超额死亡较高,是流感疫苗接种的重点人群。
Objective To evaluate the excess mortality related to influenza (influenza) in Ningbo City from 2010 to 2014 and provide reference for prevention and control of influenza. Methods Using the rate-difference model, mortality data and influenza surveillance data from 2010 to 2014 in Ningbo were analyzed to estimate the prevalence of influenza and pneumonia (PI), respiratory and circulatory diseases (RC), ischemic heart disease (IHD) ), Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and all cause of death (AC) of these five causes of death excess mortality. Results The prevalence of influenza in Ningbo during the period of 2010-2014 (P1 period) was 37 weeks. Among them, the prevalent strains were B, H1N1, B and H3N2 in 2010-2013, H1N1 and H3N2 in 2014, The average weekly excess mortality rate of AC in Ningbo was 2.54 / 100,000 in 2014; the excess mortality rate of AC in the whole population in each year was 12.66 / 100000, 15.19 / 100000, 27.86 / 100000, 12.66 / 100000 and 25.32 / 100,000; the average excess mortality rates of the five causes of death (PI, RC, IHD, COPD and AC) in the whole population were 1.68 / 100000, 12.83 / 100000, 1.34 / 100000, 0.84 / 100000 and 18.74 / 10 Million; annual RC excess mortality rate was the highest; ≥ 65-year-olds, the average annual excess mortality rate of 5 types of causes were higher than the average level of the whole population, 0 to 4-year-olds 5 types of causes of death were lower than the average annual mortality rate The average crowd. Conclusion The predominant influenza caused by influenza in winter and spring, elderly patients ≥65 years old and patients with chronic heart-lung disease are the predominant flu-immunized persons in Ningbo.