在泡沫破灭之前,认清泡沫是非常困难的。例如,上个世纪80—90年代日本房地产泡沫破灭之前,日本房价与地价持续攀升,但当时仍有很多经济学家和政府人士认为日本高房价是有需求支持的,同期的股票价格高涨共同反映了日本经济的辉煌。近期密集的房地产调控政策引发了一系列的反应。调控政策是否应该出台,又是否有效?在笔者看来,这很大程度上基于对房地产泡沫的基本判断,而对此至今仍然存在广泛争议。一般而言,衡量资产泡沫并非易事,当前支持房价泡沫 Before the bubble burst, it is very difficult to recognize the bubble. For example, before the Japanese real estate bubble burst in the 1980s and 1990s, Japan’s housing prices and land prices continued to rise. However, many economists and government officials still thought there was demand for high housing prices in Japan in the 1980s and 1990s, reflecting the surge in share prices over the same period The brilliant Japanese economy. Recent intensive real estate control policies triggered a series of reactions. Whether the control policy should be introduced, and whether it is effective? In my opinion, this is based largely on the basic judgment of the real estate bubble, and there is still a wide range of controversy so far. In general, measuring the asset bubble is not an easy task and currently supports the bubble