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受分裂主义和极端民族主义浪潮驱动,近年来,恐怖活动愈加猖獗,对世界各国国家安全构成了严重威胁。分析恐怖袭击时空规律对于准确把握当前恐怖活动态势从而科学地预防和打击恐怖犯罪具有重要的现实意义。本文研究了1970年以来部分国家的恐怖袭击事件时间分布情况,并使用自激点过程模型进行了拟合。结果显示,自激点过程模型可以较好地拟合恐怖袭击事件趋势特征,反映短期内恐怖活动烈度。
Driven by waves of separatism and extreme nationalism, terrorist activities have become increasingly rampant in recent years, posing a serious threat to the national security of all countries in the world. Analyzing the laws of time and space of terrorist attacks is of great realistic significance for accurately grasping the current situation of terrorist activities and scientifically preventing and combating terrorist crimes. This paper studies the time distribution of terrorist attacks in some countries since 1970 and uses the self-excitation process model. The results show that the process model of self-excitatory points can well fit the trend characteristics of terrorist attacks and reflect the intensity of terrorist activities in the short term.