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2008年金融危机爆发以来,全球银行体系与中国银行业发展呈现截然相反的发展态势,西方的信贷收缩与中国的中长期贷款猛增对比鲜明。本文从宏观经济运行、政策背景和信贷扩张角度出发,得出以下基本结论:第一,危机爆发前后中外银行体系处于不同的发展起点,相同的宏观政策导致了信贷收缩和信贷扩张两种不同局面;第二,全球宏观经济呈现冷热两大不同循环系统——发达经济体处于冷循环,新兴市场进入过热状态;第三,中国出现了伪过热局面——信贷能力不足形成经济下行压力,而此前的中长期贷款推动资产价格持续攀升;第四,中国2005年以来的银行体系改革积累了丰裕的资本金和可贷资金,但这一银行体制性红利正在消失;第五,中长期信贷过度投放的结果是银行体系将在2013年面临较为严峻的信用风险转化为损失的挑战;第六,通过一揽子改革,纠正过度依赖反周期政策拉动经济增长并依托银行执行反周期政策的传统思维。
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the global banking system has shown a diametrically opposite development trend to the development of China’s banking sector. The credit squeeze in the West contrasts sharply with the soaring mid-to-long term loans in China. This paper draws the following conclusions from the perspectives of macroeconomic operation, policy background and credit expansion: First, before and after the outbreak of the crisis, Chinese and foreign banking systems are at different starting points for development. The same macroeconomic policies have led to two different situations: credit contraction and credit expansion Second, the global macroeconomy has two different hot and cold circulatory systems: the developed economies are in a cold cycle and emerging markets are overheated; third, there is a situation of pseudo-overheating in China, which is underdeveloped due to lack of credit capacity. Fourthly, China’s banking system reform since 2005 has accumulated rich capital and loanable funds, but the institutional dividend of this bank is disappearing. Fifth, the long-term credit overdrafts The result of the launch is that the banking system will face a more serious challenge of converting credit risk into loss in 2013. Sixth, through a package of reforms, it will correct the traditional thinking that over-reliance on anti-cyclical policies will stimulate economic growth and rely on banks to implement countercyclical policies.