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多年以来人们对可靠性预测值的实用性和精确性总感到忧虑和怀疑。产生这种忧虑是因为预测的MTBF(平均无故障时间)和从试验中看到的MTBF往往有较大的差异。为此西屋国防和电子中心对电子对抗(ECM)雷达系统进行了实例研究,以探明引起这种差异的原因。以MIL-HDBK-217可靠性预测模型为基础对试验中所出现的问题作了分析,得出的结论是:这种差异大多是由于这些预测模型原有的某些假设条件所造成的。这些假设条件与诸如设计和(或)制造技术不好、器件制造过程中的质量控制差等因素有关,但没有对这些因素作出限制。作为本项研究的结果,西屋国防和电子中心已制定出计划,以识别和控制这些因素,本文中讲述了这些问题。
People have always been concerned about the reliability and accuracy of reliability predictions. This concern arises because the predicted MTBF (Mean Time between Failures) and the MTBF seen from the test tend to be quite different. To this end Westinghouse Defense and Electronics Center conducted an example study of the Electronic Countermeasure (ECM) radar system to determine the causes of this discrepancy. Based on the MIL-HDBK-217 reliability prediction model, the problems in the experiment were analyzed and the conclusion was reached that most of these differences were caused by some original assumptions of these prediction models. These assumptions are related to factors such as poor design and / or manufacturing techniques and poor quality control in the device manufacturing process, but do not limit these factors. As a result of this study, Westinghouse Defense and Electronics Center has developed a plan to identify and control these factors, all of which are addressed in this article.