Grey GM(1,1)Power Pharmacokinetics Model Coupling Self-memory Principle of Dynamic System

来源 :2016中国消防协会科学技术年会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:alex_tan01
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  As for the approximate single-peak sequences or fluctuating sequences under saturated condition in human body pharmacokinetics,a novel self-memory GM(1,1)power coupling prediction model is put forward to expand the applicable range of grey prediction model and promote its predictive performance.It has achieved organic coupling of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and conventionalGM(1,1)power model.The conventionalgrey prediction model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle.As shown in the illustrative example of serum concentrationprediction,the proposed coupling prediction model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and prominently possesses superior predictive performance compared with the conventionalGM(1,1)power model.It is suitable for predicting data sequences characteristics of single-peakor saturation.Thiswork makes signifigant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.
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