基于组合预测法的公路运输货运量预测研究

来源 :2017年世界交通运输大会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户：xy6905

【摘要】

：

科学准确地预测公路货运量是进行交通发展规划的合理依据。本文以陕西省安康市旬阳县货运量的历史数据为例，通过求解三次指数平滑模型、弹性系数法及多元线性回归模型的近似最优非负权重建立组合预测模型，分别运用单一模型和组合模型对旬阳县2007 至2015 年的公路货运量进行预测，结果表明组合预测模型具有更高的精确性。据此对旬阳县未来特征年份的货运量进行预测，为相关部门制定中长期规划提供更科学的依据。

【作者】

：

赵建有薛咏梅

【机构】

：

长安大学

【出处】

：

2017年世界交通运输大会

【发表日期】

：

2017年5期

【关键词】

：

公路货运量三次指数平滑弹性系数法多元线性回归组合预测

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基于组合预测法的公路运输货运量预测研究

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