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温湿度条件是影响小麦白粉病发生流行的关键气象要素。应用河北省主麦区1987—2010年小麦白粉病资料和相应气象资料,利用合成分析和秩相关分析,筛选出影响小麦白粉病流行的关键气象因子;根据经验法则,利用小麦白粉病流行阶段的温度距平和湿度距平判别白粉病流行程度,并确定了白粉病流行的气候年型与指标。经历史回代,判别小麦白粉病流行程度准确率为84%,并进行了2011年、2012年的外延指标判别,准确率达100%,综合判断准确率在85%以上。该研究结果可为小麦白粉病影响评估与长期预报提供科学依据。
Temperature and humidity conditions are the key meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of wheat powdery mildew. Based on the data of wheat powdery mildew from 1987 to 2010 and the corresponding meteorological data in Hebei Province from 1987 to 2010, the key meteorological factors influencing the occurrence of wheat powdery mildew were screened out by synthetic analysis and rank correlation analysis. According to the rule of thumb, Temperature anomaly and humidity anomaly to determine the prevalence of powdery mildew, and to determine the prevalence of powdery mildew year and index. After returning from the history, the accuracy rate of determining the prevalence of powdery mildew in wheat was 84%, and the identification of the extension indexes in 2011 and 2012 was carried out with the accuracy rate of 100% and the comprehensive judgment accuracy rate above 85%. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for wheat powdery mildew impact assessment and long-term prediction.