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由于影响因素众多,如果忽略过程只看结果的话,即不考虑贸易结构的变化,而仅考虑贸易量的大小,那么FDI对国际贸易最终可以产生三种效果,即替代效应、补充效应和不确定效应。具体到不同的东道国和母国,FDI对其国际贸易的最终影响将取决于何种效应占上风。本文即是对中国的投资来源国(地区)的对华投资额与对华贸易额之间的相关关系所作的一个经验分析。此分析是为了检验中国吸收的FDI所产生的双边贸易效果。文中以中国121个投资来源国(地区)和对外贸易伙伴国(地区)为样本,分别对2004、2005、2006三年的各国对华投资与对华贸易之间的相关性进行了检验。结果表明,从世界范围来看,除去几个特殊投资地区外,一国对华直接投资与其对华贸易之间是具有高度正相关性的,表明中国的FDI对贸易具有补充效应。
Due to the large number of factors, FDI can have three kinds of effects on international trade: substitution effect, supplement effect and uncertainty effect. Specific to different host and home countries, the ultimate impact of FDI on their international trade will depend on what effect prevails. This article is an empirical analysis of the correlation between China’s investment in China and its investment in China. This analysis is to test the effect of bilateral trade generated by China’s FDI. In this paper, we take 121 Chinese investors (regions) and foreign trade partners (regions) as samples, and test the correlation between each country’s investment in China and its trade with China in 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. The results show that, from a global perspective, excluding a few special investment areas, there is a highly positive correlation between a country’s direct investment in China and its trade with China, indicating that China’s FDI has a complementary effect on trade.