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目的应用季节乘积求和自回归移动平均模型分析南通市甲型肝炎(简称甲肝)每月发病数时间序列,建立预测模型。方法收集南通市2009年1月~2015年9月间甲肝病例月报告数据,应用EVIEWS软件拟合ARIMA模型,最后进行预测分析。结果成功建立模型ARIMA[(2),0,(2)],模型表达式为:xt=8.4 419+(1+0.6 182 B2)t/(1-0.7 474B2),模型通过参数检验及残差白噪声检验(P>0.05)。预测2015年4月~2015年9月发病数,平均相对误差为30.17%,模型拟合效果较好。预测2015年10月~2016年3月发病数,显示发病趋势较为平稳。结论求和自回归移动平均模型对南通市甲肝发病情况拟合和趋势预测效果较好,可根据预测结果开展甲肝疫情相关防控工作。
Objective To analyze the time series of monthly incidence of Hepatitis A (Hepatitis A) in Nantong City using the seasonal product autoregression moving average model and establish a predictive model. Methods The monthly data of hepatitis A cases collected from January 2009 to September 2015 in Nantong City were collected. The ARIMA model was fitted with EVIEWS software and finally predicted. Results The model ARIMA [(2), 0, (2)] was successfully established. The model expression was: xt = 8.4 419+ (1 + 0.6 182 B2) t / (1-0.7 474B2). The model passed the parameter test and the residual White noise test (P> 0.05). The number of onset was predicted from April 2015 to September 2015, the average relative error was 30.17%, and the model fitting effect was good. The number of cases from October 2015 to March 2016 was predicted, showing a more stable incidence trend. Conclusions The self-regressive moving average model of summation has a good effect on the fitting and trend prediction of the occurrence of hepatitis A in Nantong. According to the prediction results, the prevention and control of hepatitis A can be carried out.