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本文利用向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了2003—2009年政府投资与城乡居民边际消费倾向之间的相互关系。研究结果显示,长期中政府投资和居民边际消费倾向呈正相关关系,短期中政府投资和居民边际消费倾向呈负相关关系。但是政府投资对城镇和农村居民的边际消费倾向的影响存在差异,城镇和农村居民的边际消费倾向对政府投资效果的影响也是不同的。并且城镇和农村居民边际消费倾向之间也存在较为明显的负相关关系。另外,我们还考察了政府投资对城镇和农村居民边际消费倾向的贡献率。最后,根据上述分析,本文提出相关的政策建议。
This paper analyzes the relationship between government investment and the marginal propensity to consume of urban and rural residents from 2003 to 2009 by means of vector auto-regression (VAR) model, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that there is a positive correlation between government investment and residents ’marginal propensity to consume in the long run, and there is a negative correlation between government investment and residents’ marginal propensity to consume in the short run. However, the influence of government investment on the marginal propensity to consume by urban and rural residents is different, and the marginal propensity to consume by urban and rural residents also exerts a different influence on the effect of government investment. There is also a significant negative correlation between marginal propensity to consume of urban residents and rural residents. In addition, we also examine the contribution of government investment to marginal propensity to consume urban and rural residents. Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations.