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从大量的统计数据入手,研究黑龙江省的经济总量及各主要经济变量间的因果关系。利用计量经济学的方法和统计外推的思想,在现有经济政策不变的前提下对黑龙江省未来几年的经济状况做了定量的估计和预测。具体包括人均经济总量的趋势和居民家庭收入的变化规律及其模型;从业人员和人口自然增长率对经济发展的影响及其模型;投资的来源收益的分析,以及投资对经济的贡献程度;产业结构的变化规律和趋向;黑龙江省区域经济总量的近期预测模型和实证的结果。
Starting with a large amount of statistics, we study the total economic output and the causal relationships among the major economic variables in Heilongjiang Province. Using the method of econometrics and the idea of statistical extrapolation, the economic conditions of Heilongjiang Province in the coming years are estimated and predicted quantitatively under the premise of the existing economic policy. Including the trend of per capita economic aggregate and the changing rules and models of household income; the impact of natural growth rate of practitioners and population on economic development and its model; the analysis of the source income of investment and the contribution of investment to the economy; Industrial structure changes and trends; recent forecast model of regional economy in Heilongjiang Province and empirical results.