基于深度学习和粒子滤波的公交车到站时间预测

来源 :北京交通大学学报 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:chinagirlxin
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在现代城市中,准确预测公交车的到站时间具有重要意义.尤其是在交通拥堵条件下,公交车的到站时间受到复杂路况的极大影响.本文结合深度学习和粒子滤波技术,提出了一种基于深度学习(长短期记忆人工神经网络)和粒子滤波(Particle Filter,PF)的公交到站时间预测模型.该模型使用了公交车卫星定位系统和公交线路位置等数据,对所采集的数据进行插值与归一化等预处理,并充分考虑了公交车在运行过程中受到的影响因素,对北京公交集团的4条典型公交线路进行了分析.结果表明,基于深度学习和粒子滤波的公交车到站时间预测模型的平均绝对误差在80 s以内,预测精度也显著高于标准LSTM模型和标准粒子滤波模型,能有效地预测公交车到站时间.
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