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文章以2003-2009年我国30个省份的面板数据为样本,在揭示地方政府土地出让行为合理性的基础上,讨论土地财政依赖对经济增长可持续性的影响。实证结论表明,地方政府分割土地出让市场(以不同的出让方式出让土地)可以实现地方财政的跨期收入平衡,是财政支出压力下地方政府的理性行为选择。低价协议出让被征农地可以产生长期稳定的增值税收入流,高价招拍挂出让被征农地可以产生短期高额的营业税收入流。与此同时,在非农建设用地供给缺乏弹性以及政绩考核压力的双重约束下,依靠土地财政的经济增长模式难以持续。财税制度、政绩考核制度的改革将有利于转变地方政府土地财政依赖增长模式的根本性转变。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2009, this article reveals the rationality of land transfer by local governments and discusses the impact of land-based financial dependence on the sustainability of economic growth. The empirical results show that the local government can separate the land transfer market (sell the land by different means of transfer) and realize the inter-period income balance of the local finance, which is the rational behavior choice of the local government under the financial expenditure pressure. Low-cost agreement to sell the land can be levied to produce long-term and stable value-added tax revenue stream, bidding and auctioning to be levied land can produce short-term high turnover of business tax revenue. At the same time, under the dual constraints of the lack of flexibility in the supply of land for non-agricultural construction and the pressure of performance appraisal, the mode of economic growth relying on land finance can not be sustained. The fiscal tax system and the performance appraisal system will be conducive to the transformation of the local government land-based financial dependence on the growth of the fundamental change.