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长期以来,人们主要关注财政政策对总需求的影响,而忽略了财政政策潜在的增长效应。现有的研究已经发现,财政不仅通过公共支出直接影响资本积累,进而影响到经济增长,而且财政分权本身也会决定地方政府的激励,借此作用于经济增长。不过,对于这两条作用途径,目前还缺乏充分的经验证据予以支持。基于1994—2005年我国省际面板数据展开的经验研究,通过考量分权、公共支出和经济增长之间的关系,发现地方政府预算外支出以及财政分权显著地阻碍了经济增长,而其他财政支出项目对经济增长的影响不显著。另外,人力资本和贸易开放显著地促进了经济增长。这些发现对于我国今后财政政策的调整和财政体制改革具有重要的参考价值。
For a long time, people mainly concerned about the impact of fiscal policy on aggregate demand, while ignoring the potential growth effect of fiscal policy. Existing research has found that not only does finance directly affect the accumulation of capital through public spending, which in turn affects economic growth, but fiscal decentralization itself will also determine the incentives of local governments to act on economic growth. However, there is not enough empirical evidence to support these two channels of action. Based on the empirical study on the panel data of China’s provinces from 1994 to 2005, we found that the extra-budgetary expenditures of local governments and fiscal decentralization have significantly hindered economic growth by considering the relationship between decentralization, public expenditure and economic growth. Other financial The impact of expenditure on economic growth is insignificant. In addition, human capital and trade liberalization have significantly contributed to economic growth. These findings have important reference value for our country’s future fiscal policy adjustment and the financial system reform.