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本文选用了5月中下旬、6月中下旬的降雨量和锈病越冬菌量作为预测因子,用模糊综合评判建立预测模型。选用1983—1989年呼和浩特市、土右旗和临河市三个地区的病害流行状况(15个样本)作为建模基础资料。预测准确率70％。
In this paper, we selected the rainfall in mid-late May and mid-June, and the amount of overwintering mycobacterium as the predictor to establish the prediction model by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The prevalence of disease (15 samples) from 1983 to 1989 in Hohhot, Tuyou Banner and Linhe was selected as the modeling basis. Forecast accuracy of 70%.