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运用SEIJR模型简化后的SIJR模型,分析了SARS传播中的传播率、基本再生数等重要参数,并且运用所建立的模型对香港、加拿大和新加坡SARS爆发的前期数据进行拟合,得到了传播率等重要参数,然后对采取控制措施之后模型参数(隔离率等)的调整对SARS后期发展趋势进行预测,同时可以看到,模型拟合的控制前的数据与模型预测的控制后的数据之间存在明显拐点,这充分体现了控制前后疾病流行遵循着不同的规律.建立的SARS数学模型还可以同时比较各个地区控制疫情措施的有效程度.本模型给出的结果和香港、新加坡和加拿大的实际数据吻合较好,并能给出这些地区在SARS发生后期反映政府控制力度方面的定量指标.
Using the simplified SIJR model of SEIJR model, the important parameters such as the propagation rate and the basic reproduction number in SARS transmission were analyzed. The model was used to fit the previous data of SARS outbreak in Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore, and the propagation rate And then adjust the model parameters (isolation rate, etc.) after control measures to predict the development trend of SARS in the later stage. At the same time, it can be seen that the data before the model fitting and the data after the model predicting control There is a clear inflection point, which fully reflects the control of disease epidemics follow different rules.The established mathematical model of SARS can also compare the effectiveness of measures to control outbreaks in different areas at the same time.This model gives the results and Hong Kong, Singapore and Canada’s actual The data are in good agreement and give quantitative indicators of the intensity of government control in these areas during the late SARS period.