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与地震预报/预测以及地震危险性评估有关的可操作和决策问题是当今争议非常大的问题,特别是因为对近期大多数破坏性地震的概率性的地震危险性评估的总体表现令人非常不满意。尽管人们已经认识到必须通过严格的检验和验证过程来证实可操作的手段预测大地震与相关的地面震动的能力,但到目前为止只有很少几种方法被证明是有效的。鉴于对可预测性的预测具有内在的不确定性,任何地震预报/预测方法的有效性,只有在考虑到(从加强戒备到撤离的)不同层次的大范围的可能减灾行动后才能够得到判断。本文旨在展开讨论,并对拉奎拉地震(M=6.3,2009年4月6日)后建立的国际地震预报委员会所做报告的总结和建议部分做补充。所讨论的问题涉及地震预报/预测方法论的定义、验证和可能的应用,并着重以意大利现有的可操作实践予以说明。
The operational and decision-making problems associated with earthquake prediction / prediction and seismic hazard assessment are very much debated today, especially since the overall performance of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of most of the most devastating earthquakes in recent times is very, very not satisfaction. Although it has been recognized that the ability to predict large earthquakes and associated ground vibrations must be verified through rigorous inspection and validation processes, few methods have so far proven to be effective. Given the inherent uncertainties in predictability of predictability, the effectiveness of any seismic prediction / prediction approach can only be judged taking into account the wide range of possible mitigation actions at different levels (from preparedness to evacuation) . The purpose of this paper is to start the discussion and to complement the summary and recommendations of the report of the International Commission on Earthquake prediction (ICC) established after the Aquila earthquake (M = 6.3, April 6, 2009). The issues discussed relate to the definition, validation and possible application of the earthquake prediction / prediction methodology, with a focus on the existing operational practices in Italy.