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气候变化对农业影响的研究正成为气候变化经济学前沿研究的重要领域。由于分析气候变化对农业和其他部门影响的经济学探索是过去十多年新兴的一项研究,因而无论在理论方法、模型设计、数据使用还是在研究结果上均存在较大争议。本文旨在对该领域相关研究的理论框架和模型方法提供一个较为全面的总结和归纳。本文首先介绍了一个分析气候变化对农业影响的基本经济学理论框架和模型。在此基础上,本文梳理了气候变化对农业影响的计量经济研究方法的最新进展,通过拓展基本模型和假设,探讨了不同模型方法的差异和特点,分析了导致不同研究结果存在较大差异的原因。本文发现,是否考虑农民的适应行为是气候变化对农业影响的研究结果争议的焦点。最后,本文提出了实证研究气候变化对农业影响面临的主要问题和挑战。
The research on the impact of climate change on agriculture is becoming an important area of frontier research in climate change economics. Since the economic exploration of the impacts of climate change on agriculture and other sectors is a new study in the past decade or so, there is much controversy in terms of theoretical methods, model design, data usage and research findings. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more comprehensive summary and summary of the theoretical framework and model methods of related research in this field. This paper first introduces a basic economic theoretical framework and model for analyzing the impact of climate change on agriculture. On this basis, this paper reviews the latest progress in econometric research on the impact of climate change on agriculture. By expanding the basic models and assumptions, this paper explores the differences and characteristics of different models and analyzes the differences between the results of different studies the reason. This paper finds that whether or not to consider peasants’ adaptation behavior is the focus of controversy on the research results of the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Finally, this paper presents the empirical study of the main problems and challenges that climate change has on agriculture.