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采用DSEG理论分析框架建立了社会保障与技术创新、技术扩散的动力系统模型来研究其对中国经济增长与经济波动的影响。基于中国2000-2014年的经济数据对动力系统模型进行校准与数值模拟结果显示,模型能够较好地拟合目前的经济形势,解释力达到了81.76%,方差分解与IR分析结果表明,与社会保障冲击在短期内与引发的经济波动不同,技术创新技术扩散变量冲击能够在更大程度上并且持续地增加潜在的技术存量,从而,促使生产部门进行更多的研究与试验性发展投入,使得经济产出在更高水平上达到均衡。然而,社会保障对经济的影响效应体现在对其它经济变量的“传递”和“联动”方面。社会保障投入的正向冲击能够对就业、技术存量等具有正向的传递效应;而与工资的“联动性”能够对经济产出产生更大的提升作用,从而使得中国经济不断地达到新的更高均衡水平。
Based on DSEG theoretical analysis framework, a dynamic system model of social security, technological innovation and technology diffusion is established to study its impact on China’s economic growth and economic fluctuations. Based on China’s economic data from 2000 to 2014, the power system model was calibrated and the numerical simulation results show that the model can well fit the current economic situation with an explanatory power of 81.76%. The results of variance decomposition and IR analysis show that the proposed model can be applied to the social Protecting shocks in the short term is not the same as the induced economic fluctuations. The impact of diffusion of technological innovation technology variables can increase the potential stock of technology to a greater and greater extent, thereby enabling the production sector to invest more in research and experimental development so that Economic output reaches equilibrium at a higher level. However, the effect of social security on the economy is reflected in the “transfer” and “linkage” of other economic variables. The positive impact of social security investment can have a positive transfer effect on employment and technology stock, etc. And the “linkage” with wages can greatly enhance economic output, so that China’s economy can continuously achieve New higher equilibrium level.