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采用Asaoka法对深圳某工程实例的地基工后沉降进行预测,发现选取不同的起始点和时间间隔时,其预测结果相差有3倍之多。因此,用数学方法对预测地基沉降的Asaoka法的表达式进行分析,探讨其拟合参数的误差对沉降预测结果的影响,提出了拟合参数误差放大系数的概念,并对预测结果的可靠性进行分析和评估。分析结果表明:影响Asaoka法沉降预测结果稳定性的一个主要原因是其预测沉降的表达式对拟合参数β_1过于敏感,而且敏感性随着β_1的增大而增大,因此,在保证线性拟合良好的前提下,增大离散点的时间间隔,可减小β_1,从而有效减轻β_1的误差对预测结果的影响;采用Asaoka法预测沉降时,不能单凭线性拟合的好坏来判断一个预测结果的可靠性,还需要考虑拟合参数的误差放大系数的大小。
Asaoka method was used to predict the post-construction settlement of an engineering project in Shenzhen. The results showed that the predicted results were more than three times different when different starting points and time intervals were selected. Therefore, the expression of Asaoka method for predicting foundation settlement is analyzed by mathematic method. The influence of the error of fitting parameters on the settlement prediction results is discussed. The concept of error amplification factor of fitting parameters is proposed. The reliability of prediction results For analysis and evaluation. The results show that one of the main factors affecting the stability of Asaoka settlement prediction is that the expression of predicted settlement is too sensitive to the fitting parameter β_1, and the sensitivity increases with the increase of β_1. Therefore, Under the premise of being good, increasing the time interval of discrete points can reduce β_1, so as to effectively reduce the influence of β_1 error on the prediction results. When using Asaoka method to predict settlement, the linear fitting can not be used to judge one Predict the reliability of the results, but also need to consider the size of the error amplification factor fitting parameters.