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A so-called ISF method for predicting geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storm blowing to the earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach to solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and geomagnetic disturbance observations in 1966-1982, dynamics of disturbance propagation and fuzzy mathematics. Prediction test has been made for 24 large geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space disasters during the period of 1980 -1998, with the three-dimensional propagation characteristics, the best close degree of each radio source and the influence of the south-north components of interplanetary magnetic fields considered. The main results are (i) for onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, events with relative error △Tpred/Tobs≤10% between the observation Tobs and the prediction Tpred, account for 45.8% of all events, ≤30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (ii) as for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, events with relative error ΔΣKp,pred/ΣKp,obs≤10% betwee
A so-called ISF method for predicting geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storm blowing to the earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach to solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and geomagnetic disturbance observations in 1966-1982, dynamics of disturbance propagation and fuzzy mathematics. Prediction test has been made for 24 large geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space disasters during the period of 1980- 1998, with the three-dimensional propagation characteristics, the best close degree of each radio source and the influence of the south-north components of interplanetary magnetic fields considered. The main results are (i) for onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, events with relative error ΔTpred / Tobs ≦ 10% between the observation Tobs and the prediction Tpred, account for 45.8% of all events, ≤30% for 78.3% and> 30% for only 21.7%; (ii) as for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, events with relative error ΔΣKp, pre d / ΣKp, obs ≤ 10% betwee