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本讲是在第二讲OD调查的基础上,进一步介绍远景交通量的预测和分配方法。主要内容有:(一) 预测远景交通量的步骤;(二) “出行产生”的概念和预测方法(发生率法和发生模型法);(三) “出行分布”的概念及预测方法(增长系数法和重力模型法);(四) 交通方式划分的概念、预测方法予(线路模型和起讫点模型)和模型的建立;(五) 交通量分配的概念及预测方法(着重介绍最短路线分配法和多路线概率分配法)。文中每个部分都附有计算实例,可供学习参考。
This lecture is based on the second survey of OD, to further introduce the forecasted traffic volume and allocation method. The main contents include: (1) the steps of forecasting the amount of long-distance traffic; (2) the concept and forecasting method of “travel generation” (incidence method and occurrence model method); (3) the concept and forecasting method of “travel distribution” Coefficient method and gravity model method); (4) concept of traffic division, prediction method (line model and origin and destination model) and model establishment; (5) concept of traffic distribution and forecasting method (highlighting the shortest route allocation Method and multi-line probability distribution method). Each part of the article is accompanied by calculation examples for reference.