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当前中国宏观经济在高速增长的同时面临着严重的内外失衡。内部失衡表现为储蓄和投资都过度而消费不足,且储蓄比投资更过度;外部失衡表现为国际收支顺差和外汇储备巨大且快速上升。内外失衡是需求结构的失衡,即高投资和高出口拉动高增长,而消费严重不足。内外失衡的实质是整个经济的过度储蓄。过度储蓄和需求结构的失衡主要是由收入分配结构的失衡造成的,即在国民收入分配中工资的份额过低且持续下降,而利润和税收的份额过高且持续上升。收入分配结构的失衡又是依靠无限劳动力供给和极低劳动力成本实现快速资本积累和高速增长的生产模式决定的。因此,必须针对需求模式、分配模式和生产模式三个层次对中国宏观经济的失衡进行系统的矫正,统筹协调运用财政政策、货币政策、对外经济政策、收入分配政策、供给管理政策等多种政策工具。
At present, China’s macro-economy is experiencing serious internal and external imbalances while growing rapidly. Internal imbalances are manifested as overconsumption and underconsumption, and overdependence on savings. Investments in external imbalances show a huge and rapidly rising balance of payments surplus and foreign exchange reserves. Internal and external imbalances are the imbalances in the demand structure, that is, high investment and high export-led high growth, while consumption is seriously insufficient. The essence of internal and external imbalances is over-saving of the entire economy. The imbalance between over-savings and demand structure is mainly caused by the unbalanced income distribution structure, that is, the share of wages in the national income distribution is too low and continues to decline, while the share of profits and taxes is too high and continues to rise. The imbalance of the income distribution structure is determined by the mode of production with unlimited labor supply and extremely low labor cost, resulting in rapid capital accumulation and rapid growth. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically correct the imbalance of China’s macroeconomic system from the three levels of demand mode, distribution mode and production mode, and make overall plans for the coordinated application of various policies such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, foreign economic policy, income distribution policy and supply management policy tool.